Wildcard Weekend NFL Picks: With the Chiefs Gone, Is This Josh Allen’s Moment?
And Here. We. Go. I'm glad to get the final regular season week out of the way. It is a bettor's nightmare. Time to get back to some real games where players will play the full sixty minutes and give max effort. And we don't have to check to see which players have incentives they are trying to reach. The only incentive at stake here is a Super Bowl championship ring.
Here are my final regular season stats:
Last Week
- Straight Up: 9-6
- Against the Spread (ATS): 9-6
- Over/Under: 7-8
For the Season
- Straight Up: 163-100 (61.98%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 128-137 (48.31%)
- Over/Under: 132-132 (50%)
It was a little disappointing, although still a profitable season for me because I was fortunate to put money down on the right games. Maybe next year I will do a "Best Bets" section at the end of the articles. But, before then, we have some business we still need to attend to.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026
NFC Wild Card — 4:30 PM (FOX)
Los Angeles Rams (12–5) at Carolina Panthers (8–9)
Spread: Rams -10 | Over/Under: 46.5
Carolina snuck into the playoffs thanks to the Falcons beating the Saints which allowed them to win some quirky three-way tie with them, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. They're going to wish they didn't make the playoffs after this one is over.
Prediction: Rams 35, Panthers 10
Tony’s Pick: RAMS -10
Point Total: UNDER 46.5
NFC Wild Card — 8:00 PM (Prime Video)
Green Bay Packers (9–7–1) at Chicago Bears (11–6)
Spread: Bears -1.5 | Over/Under: 45.5
This will be the third matchup between these two longtime rivals. Actually, they are the longest rivals in NFL history – they first played each other over 104 years ago on November 27, 1921. Yet this is only the third time the Bears and Packers have faced each other in the playoffs. The most recent time came in 2010 when an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers beat the Bears at Chicago's Soldier Field, 21-14. The other time was in 1941.
As they say, the past is prologue. The Packers come into this game on a four-game losing streak, which included a 22-16 defeat to the Bears in Week 16. To be fair, head coach Matt LaFleur has been playing it safe the last couple of weeks – sitting his starters and most of their top backups, as well.
The Bears have been the "Cardiac Kids" all season. Only six of their games all season were decided by one score or less. The Bears were 6-3 in games that were decided in the last few minutes of the game or overtime. That experience cannot be overstated.
The Packers haven't been the same since losing Micah Parsons for the season. It is almost like the air came out of their balloon when Parsons got carted off the field in Week 15. Green Bay hasn't won since.
Packers' QB Jordan Love suffered a concussion on December 20. He will be good to go for this game, but it will be three weeks since he last played. Green Bay starting running back Josh Jacobs is battling a myriad of injuries (knee/ankle). Green Bay's receiving corps won't scare anyone. Everyone will focus on Parsons' injury, but a sneakily very impactful loss was tight end Tucker Kraft.
Ultimately, this game comes down to which quarterback do you trust more. At this stage, I still have more faith in Jordan Love than Caleb Williams. Green Bay also has had more recent playoff experience.
I have been a harsh critic of Williams since before he was drafted, but I readily admit he has shown me this year that he may have a better NFL career than I projected. He threw for a smidge under 4,000 yards (3,942) to go along with 27 TD and 7 INT. As much as he has improved, I think he hasn't made the ultimate leap yet. I think this one will, again, come down to the final moments, but the Bears won't be able to pull this one out.
Prediction: Packers 20, Bears 19
Tony’s Pick: PACKERS +1.5
Point Total: UNDER 45.5
SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026
AFC Wild Card — 1:00 PM (CBS)
Buffalo Bills (12–5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13–4)
Spread: Bills -1.5 | Over/Under: 51.5
I know why the Bills are favored in this one. Two words – Josh Allen. But there is no logical rationale as to why Buffalo would be favored against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Jacksonville is, simply, the better team.
Jacksonville has won eight in a row. Had they not blown a 29-10 lead in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans in Week 10, they'd be on a ten-game winning streak. In Jacksonville's last six games (since November 23), Trevor Lawrence has thrown 15 TDs and had just one interception. He has averaged over 260 yards passing per game over that span. Josh Allen gets a lot of pub for being a dual threat, but Lawrence is Jacksonville's second leading rusher, as well.
Travis Etienne Jr. finished the season with 1107 yards rushing. Does that surprise you?
There is a reason why Jacksonville won 13 games this year. They are a very well-rounded team. The addition of Jakobi Meyers was a sneaky good pick up. He has boosted the receiving corps on the heels of the loss of Travis Hunter for the season due to injury. He has also brought veteran leadership to a young receiving corps. Brenton Strange has emerged as a solid red zone target for Lawrence. Here's a prop pick for you: Strange will catch a touchdown pass in this one.
Jacksonville's defense has been very opportunistic. They tied a franchise record with 21 interceptions. Their rush defense was the best in the NFL – allowing only 85.6 rushing yards per game.
If Jacksonville can shut down Buffalo's James Cook and make Buffalo one-dimensional, I feel Josh Allen doesn't have enough guys that can get open and break big plays. There will be a play, and probably two, where Allen will try to do too much and turn the ball over. It may be a fumble or an interception, or both. Will it be returned for a touchdown? It may be the difference in the game.
Buffalo is a flawed team. Liam Coen has proven himself as a first-year coach. He has a long coaching career ahead of himself in the NFL. He will figure a way to exploit Buffalo and get the upper hand on Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott.
Prediction: Jaguars 30, Bills 26
Tony’s Pick: JAGUARS +1.5
Point Total: OVER 51.5
NFC Wild Card — 4:30 PM (FOX)
San Francisco 49ers (12–5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11–6)
Spread: Eagles -4.5 | Over/Under: 44.5
There has been a lot of discussion in recent weeks about who should be the NFL MVP – Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford. It has gone back and forth between the two for most of the second half of the season. But what about Christian McCaffrey? He put up over 2,100 rushing and receiving yards and 17 TDs for a team that was decimated with injuries all season long. He had 102 receptions as a running back. He set the mark for most receptions by a running back in a season in 2019 when he had 116.
The 49ers got lucky when Brock Purdy took a big hit and only suffered a stinger on a meaningless pass on the last play of last week's game against Seattle. He will be good to go, but his effectiveness is hindered by the status of big offensive lineman Trent Williams. The 49ers are 4-13 in games they've played without Williams since acquiring him in 2020. Their offense just isn't the same without the future Hall of Famer protecting Purdy's blind side. San Francisco only put up three points without him last week. I know the Seattle defense is one of the best in the NFL, but still.
The 49ers did get tight end George Kittle back last week. But it always seems when they get one guy back, someone else goes down. Linebacker Tatum Bethune was lost for the season in Week 18 with a groin tear. The linebacker corps has been without their leader Fred Werner most of the season. Dee Winters and Luke Gifford are two more linebackers who are questionable.
The Eagles rested everyone in their season finale as they begin their defense of their Super Bowl title, in earnest. The Eagles defense has a ferocious pass rush, but can their offense have a Kumbaya moment now that the playoffs are here.
Prediction: Eagles 20, 49ers 17
Tony’s Pick: SAN FRANCISCO +4.5
Point Total: UNDER 44.5
AFC Wild Card — 8:00 PM (NBC / Peacock)
Los Angeles Chargers (11–6) at New England Patriots (14–3)
Spread: Patriots -3.5 | Over/Under: 46.5
Justin Herbert is 2-2 career vs. the Patriots. There was a time when the thought was Bill Belichick had him figured out. Then he came into New England in late December 2024 and threw for 281 yards and 3 TDs in a 40-7 victory which helped end Belichick's tenure in New England.
I don't know about anyone else, but this game is going to be weird to see. If it weren't for the helmets and if the Patriots were playing in their Nor'Easter alternative uniforms, I might have a hard time discerning the two teams.
Drake Maye and Justin Herbert could be twins – right down to the #10 on their jerseys. Their arms and playing styles are almost identical. You hear most people compare Maye to Josh Allen, but – to me – Justin Herbert is the more appropriate comparison.
Listening to sports talk in New England and it seems like media and fans are looking past the Chargers. That's pretty presumptuous for a fan base that saw their team win only four games each of the last two seasons.
The Chargers are only giving up 179.9 yards passing per game – 5th best in the NFL. They have held Aaron Rodgers to 161 yards passing, Trevor Lawrence to 153, Patrick Mahomes to 189, Bo Nix to 141, and Dak Prescott to 244 (considering he averaged 280+ yards per game passing). The Chargers are vulnerable intermediate over the middle of the field so Hunter Henry might need to have a huge game against his former team.
The Patriots are getting healthier and might be as close to full strength as they have been in a long time. If they can just keep their off-the-field behaviors in line. New England got a huge boost last week with the return of left tackle Will Campbell and their big free agent offseason signing, defensive tackle Milton Williams. They are hoping to get back their inside linebacking tackle machine, Robert Spillane.
As good as the Patriots have been this year, the best may be yet to come as they are getting healthy at the right time. I am not expecting a lot of points in this one and it may come down to rookie kicker Andy Borregales.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Chargers 21
Tony’s Pick: CHARGERS +3.5
Point Total: UNDER 46.5
MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026
AFC Wild Card — 8:15 PM (ESPN / ABC)
Houston Texans (12–5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)
Spread: Texans -3 | Over/Under: 39.5
The Texans are, literally, the wild card in the AFC. This may be the easiest game to pick – besides picking the Rams to destroy the Panthers. The only thing – and I mean the only thing – that will give Pittsburgh a chance to win this game is playing outside in front of their home crowd. But, as we saw a glimpse of in their season finale winner-take-all home game against Baltimore, the Pittsburgh home crowd will not hesitate to turn on Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Steelers team if they stumble out of the gates. I just don't see how they score points in this one. The Steelers have no playmakers on offense – even with D.K. Metcalf coming back from his two-game suspension which almost cost Pittsburgh a playoff berth. I wouldn't be surprised to see this Houston defense shut out Pittsburgh.
This one should be easy money.
Prediction: Texans 20, Steelers 6
Tony’s Pick: HOUSTON -3
Point Total: UNDER 39.5