Week 9 NFL Picks – TOBRAsports

Tony Branco

07 Nov 2026 • 6 min read

The last two weeks have been pretty solid for me, as I feel like I am getting a good read on about 80% of the NFL teams.

I should hope so—we only have half the regular season left.

There are still teams like the Falcons, Browns, Saints, and especially the Dallas Friggin' Cowboys that I am struggling to figure out.

Here are my results for last week and the season:

As for my Best Bets, I was a failed two-point conversion by Carolina away from going 2-1. It also kept me from getting back to .500 for the first time after a horrible start to the season.

As it stands, I went 1-2 last week and am now 17-19 on the season with my Best Bets.

Let's turn our attention to Week 9.

As you should be able to tell from my confidence ratings on most of these games, I am pretty confident about this week.

Fingers crossed.

Thursday Night Football – November 5, 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4) – 8:15 PM

Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -10
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacksonville is the one team in the NFL I feel most confident about. They are the most consistent team, week in and week out.

Liam Coen is the Coach of the Year in my book.

O/U Pick: OVER 39.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Jacksonville 30, Baltimore 17

Sunday, November 8, 2026 – Madrid

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-5) – 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Straight-Up Pick: ATLANTA
ATS Pick: ATLANTA +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Cincinnati may have won last week, but they lost in my book.

Well, they failed to cover, so technically they did lose in my book.

How do you give up 37 points to the Tennessee Titans?

I put far more weight on Cam Ward throwing for over 300 yards (302) than I do on Joe Burrow throwing for almost 500 (462).

That was the ninth time Burrow has thrown for over 400 yards, but only the first time Ward has thrown for over 300.

I am pretending like the Atlanta-Tampa Bay game didn't happen last week.

One thing to note: Bijan Robinson always seems to have big games in nationally televised games, and Kyle Pitts always seems to show up in international games.

O/U Pick: UNDER 54.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Atlanta 26, Cincinnati 24

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu – Madrid, Spain

Sunday, November 8 – 1:00 PM Window

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-4) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: DENVER
ATS Pick: DENVER -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Damn you, Bryce Young, for fooling me into thinking you might be an NFL-caliber starting quarterback after all.

In his defense, the Panthers are without both starting tackles and their starting left guard.

Denver might not need a fourth-quarter comeback to win this one.

O/U Pick: UNDER 44.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Denver 26, Carolina 16

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-6) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS -5.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I wish I knew how to quit you, Dallas.

You would think I am a Cowboys fan by the way I pick them every week.

But I'm not.

I just don't understand how this offense isn't putting up 35 points per game on a consistent basis with talent like Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams.

The Colts' current situation can be summarized succinctly by star running back Jonathan Taylor:

"They're licking their chops right now. They think they're going to kick us while we're down."

Yes, they do, Jonathan.

O/U Pick: UNDER 51.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Dallas 27, Indianapolis 20

New York Jets (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: KANSAS CITY
ATS Pick: NY JETS +9.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

The Chiefs were another one of those teams that screwed me over last week.

Kansas City was up 24-21 in Denver late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs managed to get the ball down near the Denver goal line and had a touchdown pass called back because of a false start.

The Jets always find a way to keep games close.

But you want to take Geno Smith and Aaron Glenn over Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the fourth quarter of a close game?

Me neither.

O/U Pick: UNDER 48.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Kansas City 23, NY Jets 17

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-6) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: DETROIT
ATS Pick: MIAMI +6.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a sneaky game.

The Lions are beat up on defense—again.

The Dolphins are a feisty bunch.

Upset alert?

O/U Pick: OVER 49.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Detroit 29, Miami 24

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: NEW ORLEANS
ATS Pick: NEW ORLEANS -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Yuck!

O/U Pick: UNDER 42.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: New Orleans 20, Cleveland 16

New York Giants (4-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-6) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: PHILADELPHIA
ATS Pick: PHILADELPHIA +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This game would have been a "yuck" until it was announced Joe Milton III will be starting for Philadelphia.

O/U Pick: UNDER 38.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Philadelphia 19, New York Giants 16

Los Angeles Rams (4-4) at Washington Commanders (2-4-1) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: WASHINGTON +4.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Matthew Stafford doesn't seem right this season.

He's thrown for under 225 yards in each of his last three games, with two interceptions, after throwing for over 300 yards in each of the four games before that.

And you always have to worry about a backdoor cover with Jayden Daniels.

O/U Pick: OVER 47.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: LA Rams 26, Washington 24

Sunday, November 8 – 4:05 PM Window

Houston Texans (2-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) – 4:05 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: LA CHARGERS
ATS Pick: LA CHARGERS +6
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

I'm doing it.

The Chargers' pass defense is actually borderline top-five in passing yards allowed.

And the last time we saw the Texans, they were losing to the New York Giants.

O/U Pick: OVER 40.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: LA Chargers 23, Houston 20

Sunday, November 8 – 4:25 PM Window

Las Vegas Raiders (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (6-1) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS +10
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

I was this close to picking the Raiders.

Their pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Ordinarily, that would be really bad news going up against Brock Purdy.

But San Francisco's top wide receivers in this game will be Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing, and Brandin Cooks.

O/U Pick: OVER 51.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: San Francisco 27, Las Vegas 26

Green Bay Packers (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: GREEN BAY
ATS Pick: GREEN BAY +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

I'm surprised by a lot of these lines.

This one has fluctuated between 3.5 and 2.5, but I got it at 3.5. With two teams this evenly matched, I'll gladly take that field-goal cushion.

I also think Drake Maye and Jordan Love will give us an aerial show.

This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.

O/U Pick: OVER 44.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Green Bay 28, New England 24

Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: SEATTLE -8.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I was about to say this may finally spell the end for Jacoby Brissett as a starting quarterback.

Then news came out this week that he was being traded to Baltimore in hopes that he'll be starting for the Ravens in Week 10.

Sam Darnold is out for this game with a quad injury. He also has a fractured rib.

Drew Lock will start in his place, but he's also been dealing with an elbow injury to his throwing arm.

O/U Pick: UNDER 39.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Seattle 23, Arizona 13

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) at Chicago Bears (6-2) – 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)

Straight-Up Pick: CHICAGO
ATS Pick: TAMPA BAY +6
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

People will look at this game and think:

"Baker Mayfield against Caleb Williams."

But both of these defenses are top ten in the league in total yards and points allowed per game, and both are top five in fewest rushing yards allowed.

O/U Pick: UNDER 47.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Chicago 26, Tampa Bay 20

Monday Night Football – November 9, 2026

Buffalo Bills (6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-1) – 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: BUFFALO -3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Carson Wentz lives!

It's hard to believe he's still only 33 years old.

He gets the start for Minnesota in place of Kyler Murray, who always seems to be hurt.

If Minnesota were smart, they should be on the phone with the Chargers inquiring about the availability of Justin Herbert.

Imagine Herbert and Jonathan Taylor joining Justin Jefferson and that defense.