NFL Week 6 Picks: Questionable Coaching Decisions Are Creating Havoc
Just when I got to .500, I get knocked back down the mountain. What's becoming painfully obvious to me this season is that there are a lot of dumb head coaches out there. I can foresee there being as many as 12 coaching vacancies this offseason.
Time to start the climb again.
Thursday Night Football – October 15, 2026
Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2) – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)
Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: SEATTLE -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
The Denver secondary will be without Patrick Surtain II. That's bad news when you're going up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Seattle has committed seven turnovers in its two losses. As long as the Seahawks protect the football, I think they win this one comfortably.
Score: Seattle 27, Denver 19
Sunday, October 18, 2026 – London
Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) – 9:30 AM (NFL Network)
Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Houston pulled off a blockbuster trade by acquiring wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison and C.J. Stroud were teammates at Ohio State, and Harrison is expected to play.
Equally important, Nico Collins is healthy. There really aren't any excuses anymore for Stroud and this Houston offense.
Jacksonville is still the better team, though, despite getting pretty damn lucky last week against Philadelphia.
Score: Jacksonville 30, Houston 26
Sunday, October 18 – 1:00 PM Window
Tennessee Titans (0-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: INDIANAPOLIS
ATS Pick: INDIANAPOLIS -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee has scored 10 points or fewer in three of its five games. The most the Titans have scored in any game is 20, while they've allowed at least 20 points in four of five.
That is not a recipe for victory.
Score: Indianapolis 26, Tennessee 16
Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: CAROLINA
ATS Pick: PHILADELPHIA +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 38.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Philadelphia might be raising the red flag.
The Eagles were already missing several significant pieces on offense, and now Jalen Hurts has been ruled out with a blood clot in his calf. That means 26-year-old, 6-foot-6 Tanner McKee gets the start.
I don't think the drop-off from Hurts to McKee is large enough to justify the extreme movement we've seen in this line.
I like Carolina to win, but Philadelphia to stay within the number.
Score: Carolina 21, Philadelphia 19
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: PITTSBURGH
ATS Pick: PITTSBURGH -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 39.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I don't get this point total. It's actually dropped below the important 40-point mark.
Jalon Daniels looked more than serviceable against Dallas, completing 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards. Pittsburgh may have also finally smartened up and realized it should use Jaylen Warren more instead of feeding Aaron Rodgers' desire to throw the ball every down.
I think we clear 40 here, easily.
Score: Pittsburgh 27, Tampa Bay 20
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-2) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: BALTIMORE
ATS Pick: CLEVELAND +4.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Cleveland has actually won three of the last five home meetings against Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced all week, so it looks like Baltimore could be going with Tyler Huntley again, although head coach Jesse Minter hasn't ruled Jackson out.
Either way, these divisional games have a habit of being close and unpredictable.
Score: Baltimore 26, Cleveland 23
New Orleans Saints (1-4) at New York Giants (3-1-1) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: NY GIANTS
ATS Pick: NY GIANTS +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The shine has come off the Saints just when I was starting to come around on them.
Tyler Shough threw for only 96 yards with two interceptions last week. That's nothing to be too ashamed of against Ray Flores' Minnesota defense, but it wasn't exactly encouraging either.
The Giants aren't going to be happy about being home underdogs.
Score: NY Giants 29, New Orleans 23
Chicago Bears (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: CHICAGO
ATS Pick: CHICAGO +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 51.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
It looks like it will be Caleb Williams against Michael Penix Jr. after all.
Both quarterbacks have been recovering from significant injuries this week.
This game may simply come down to which quarterback is still standing at the end.
Score: Chicago 29, Atlanta 23
New York Jets (2-3) at New England Patriots (3-2) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: NEW ENGLAND
ATS Pick: NEW ENGLAND -7.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Patriots look as though they may be getting Christian Gonzalez and A.J. Brown back.
Rookie left tackle Caleb Lomu will have his hands full with fellow rookie David Bailey, who had three sacks last week.
I just don't think the Jets can score enough points to hang with New England. Their best chance is if the Drake Maye from Weeks 1 through 3 suddenly resurfaces.
Score: New England 27, NY Jets 13
Sunday, October 18 – 4:05 PM Window
Arizona Cardinals (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3) – 4:05 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: ARIZONA +12.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 52.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cardinals are always dangerous with a big spread because of their ability to backdoor cover.
Jacoby Brissett loves piling up numbers once games get out of hand, and Arizona is 2-0 ATS this season when getting more than a touchdown.
The Rams can win easily without covering 12.5.
Score: LA Rams 35, Arizona 24
Sunday, October 18 – 4:25 PM Window
Los Angeles Chargers (0-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) – 4:25 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: KANSAS CITY
ATS Pick: LA CHARGERS +8.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I can't help but feel bad for Justin Herbert.
Nobody can catch the ball. Nobody can get open. And Herbert is getting hit hard consistently.
Kansas City wins, but they seem to never blow anybody out.
Score: Kansas City 24, LA Chargers 16
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) – 4:25 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: BUFFALO -5.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 53.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is definitely a possible letdown spot for Buffalo after its shootout victory over the Rams on Monday night.
But I think the Raiders are starting to regress toward what everyone expected them to be in the first place.
Buffalo still scores enough to cover for their poor defense.
Score: Buffalo 33, Las Vegas 26
Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2) – 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)
Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 53.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This game ought to be fun, although gusty winds could affect both teams' prolific passing attacks.
Both of these defenses are horrific.
In the end, it might actually be Dallas' running game that proves to be the difference.
Score: Dallas 34, Green Bay 33
Monday Night Football – October 19, 2026
Washington Commanders (1-3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (5-0) – 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)
Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: SAN FRANCISCO -7.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 51.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jayden Daniels' running ability was on full display last week when he rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns.
That's because he doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to.
I expect Daniels to create enough offense with his legs to help push this total over, but San Francisco eventually pulls away.
Score: San Francisco 33, Washington 23