Week 9 was a bad week for Vegas.

Favorites went 14-1 straight up and 12-3 against the spread. The New England Patriots were the only favorite to lose.

I continue to do well with my moneyline picks and totals, but I am still struggling to get back to .500 against the spread.

As confident as I was last week, this looks like a much more difficult slate.

Several teams will look very different this week after a busy trade deadline.

Thursday Night Football – November 12, 2026

Washington Commanders (2-5-1) at New York Giants (5-2-1) – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Straight-Up Pick: WASHINGTON
ATS Pick: WASHINGTON +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

As a reminder, always check the weather forecast before making your picks.

Thursday night's forecast calls for heavy rain and strong winds.

These two teams are already offensively challenged enough as it is.

O/U Pick: UNDER 40.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Washington 20, NY Giants 17

Sunday, November 15, 2026 – Munich

New England Patriots (5-4) vs. Detroit Lions (6-2) – 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Straight-Up Pick: DETROIT
ATS Pick: DETROIT -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit is technically the home team in this matchup, but New England has developed a large fan base in Germany.

The Patriots' secondary was embarrassed last week, and now it faces an even more potent offense than Green Bay's.

Green Bay doesn't have a running back like Jahmyr Gibbs.

No team does.

O/U Pick: OVER 51.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Detroit 29, New England 23

FC Bayern Munich Stadium – Munich, Germany

Sunday, November 15 – 1:00 PM Window

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: KANSAS CITY
ATS Pick: ATLANTA
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Kansas City escaped disaster when Patrick Mahomes ran off the field holding his elbow after taking a big hit just before halftime.

He managed to return to the game, and an MRI showed no structural damage.

Atlanta returns stateside after playing in Spain last week. The Falcons also traded away All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III and starting center Ryan Neuzil.

What does that tell ya?

O/U Pick: UNDER 46.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Kansas City 23, Atlanta 21

Houston Texans (3-5) at Cleveland Browns (5-4) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: HOUSTON
ATS Pick: HOUSTON -4.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We've seen this story before with the Houston Texans.

They start horribly, then something clicks around Week 4 or 5.

Then suddenly they look like one of the top three or four teams in the AFC.

O/U Pick: OVER 41.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Houston 27, Cleveland 17

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: MINNESOTA
ATS Pick: MINNESOTA +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Green Bay isn't as good as it looked against New England.

Minnesota will now have a competent quarterback—as opposed to whatever that performance was by Carson Wentz last week—as Kirk Cousins returns to the place he called home for six seasons.

It shouldn't take long for Cousins to re-familiarize himself with Kevin O'Connell's offense.

The Vikings' defense will also quickly remind Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden that they aren't playing New England anymore.

O/U Pick: OVER 42.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Minnesota 27, Green Bay 26

Miami Dolphins (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (2-7) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: INDIANAPOLIS
ATS Pick: INDIANAPOLIS -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Indianapolis sold off a lot of pieces in the days leading up to the trade deadline, but in the end they held onto their two biggest chips: Daniel Jones and, especially, Jonathan Taylor.

Miami will be without starting quarterback Malik Willis.

Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start.

O/U Pick: UNDER 38.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Indianapolis 24, Miami 13

Carolina Panthers (3-5) at New Orleans Saints (3-5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: CAROLINA
ATS Pick: CAROLINA +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This one smells like a shootout to me.

Carolina has been a difficult team to figure out, but I think the Panthers return to the offense we saw at the beginning of the season—at least for one week.

The Saints are as healthy as they've been all season.

This game will go a long way toward deciding who wins the pathetic NFC South.

O/U Pick: OVER 48.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Carolina 29, New Orleans 27

Buffalo Bills (7-1) at New York Jets (2-7) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: BUFFALO -8.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The only question is how long Buffalo keeps its foot on the pedal.

O/U Pick: UNDER 50.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Buffalo 29, NY Jets 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-7) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -10.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Jacksonville never takes its foot off the pedal.

I am never worried about the Jaguars taking care of business against bad teams.

They were also the most aggressive team at the trade deadline.

They were already my Super Bowl favorite.

Now they've gotten even better.

O/U Pick: UNDER 46.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: Jacksonville 30, Tennessee 16

Sunday, November 15 – 4:05 PM Window

Los Angeles Rams (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6) – 4:05 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: LA RAMS -9.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Arizona rookie Carson Beck will be the second quarterback making his first NFL start this week.

Matthew Stafford will be making his 262nd career start.

You do the math.

O/U Pick: UNDER 39.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: LA Rams 24, Arizona 10

Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) – 4:05 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: SEATTLE -6.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2026 No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza completes the trifecta of quarterbacks making their first NFL start in Week 10.

I can think of about 28 other NFL defenses he would rather be facing.

O/U Pick: OVER 40.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Seattle 26, Las Vegas 16

Sunday, November 15 – 4:25 PM Window

San Francisco 49ers (7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: SAN FRANCISCO -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am done betting on Dallas.

It took overtime for the Cowboys to beat an Indianapolis team that had half its players with suitcases packed in case they were getting traded.

Dallas should be running away with the NFC East.

Brian Schottenheimer should be fired at the end of the season, if not earlier.

But Jerry won't do it.

O/U Pick: OVER 55.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Score: San Francisco 31, Dallas 26

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) – 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)

Straight-Up Pick: CINCINNATI
ATS Pick: PITTSBURGH +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The point total was 42.5 in the first matchup between these teams earlier this season.

They scored 57.

This time around, the total is a full touchdown higher.

Pittsburgh has won three of the last four and four of the last six in this rivalry.

O/U Pick: OVER 48.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 26

Monday Night Football – November 16, 2026

Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5) – 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Straight-Up Pick: BALTIMORE
ATS Pick: LA CHARGERS +4.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Oh well.

I tried picking the Chargers to pull off the upset last week.

I was close.

Houston only beat them, 44-22.

Jacoby Brissett will manage this game just well enough for Baltimore to keep the Chargers winless.

O/U Pick: OVER 38.5
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Score: Baltimore 23, LA Chargers 19

4 BEST BETS

Against the Spread

BUFFALO -8.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

SEATTLE -6.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

HOUSTON -4.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under

MINNESOTA/GREEN BAY OVER 42.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 10 byes: Chicago Bears (7-2), Denver Broncos (7-2), Philadelphia Eagles (2-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6).