Week 9 NFL Picks: Josh Allen owns Mahomes in the regular season

I had a feeling Week 8 was going to be a rough week. This is what I posted on X to promote my picks last week:

You can't say you weren't warned.

I mean, come on, the Jets won their first game. Chicago couldn't beat Baltimore with Ty Huntley at quarterback? Bijan Robinson got only nine carries against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Atlanta got routed at home by the Dolphins? Dallas's offense and defense were no-shows in Denver. Pittsburgh's defense gave up 20 consecutive completions to Jordan Love? There was only one game that finished within one score. The favorites crushed it. I didn't.

Last Week

• Straight Up: 7-5
• Against the Spread (ATS):  3-9
• Over/Under: 7-5

For the Season

• Straight Up: 76-42-1 (64.95%)
• Against the Spread (ATS): 59-62 (51.4%)
• Over/Under: 57-62 (46.73%)

Thursday
Ravens @ Dolphins — Spread: Ravens −7.5

O/U: 50.5

Lamar Jackson will be back for this one. Or will he? Who do you want to believe after last weekend's injury list report fiasco. Friday he was listed as a full participant at practice, then, less than 24 hours later, he was ruled "out" for Sunday's game. It didn't stop the Ravens from putting up 30 points against the Bears. The Dolphins have a similar defense to Chicago.

Prediction: Ravens 31, Dolphins 26. Take the DOLPHINS and the OVER.

Sunday
Vikings @ Lions — Spread: Lions −9.5

O/U: 48.5

What has happened to Brian Flores' Vikings' defense? They have given up 367.3 yards per game in the last three. And now they are going up against one of the higher-powered offenses in the league. Vikings' head coach Kevin O'Connell has no choice but to go back to second-year quarterback JJ McCarthy to replace the one-armed bandit, Carson Wentz, at starter who was placed on season-ending IR.

Prediction: Lions 37, Vikings 20. Take the LIONS and the OVER.

Packers @ Panthers — Spread: Packers −13.5 O/U: 44.5

Andy Dalton is usually good for one good game in his first relief start. Not last week. Bryce Young was a full participant in practice on Wednesday so it looks like he should be back this week. That is little consolation against a Packers team that dominated Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Packers 30, Panthers 13. Take the PACKERS and the UNDER.

Broncos @ Texans — Spread: Texans −1.5

O/U: 40.5

Denver has been on fire over the last five quarters. Starting with the 33-point fourth quarter in that incredible comeback against the Giants, the Broncos have scored 77 points in five quarters – that's an average of two-plus touchdowns each quarter.

The Texans surprised me by taking care of San Francisco easily last week. I've been hard on Houston but maybe they are turning a corner and beginning to recapture some of their magic from two years ago. They've now won three out of their last four and scored 26 or more points in those three wins.

Prediction: Texans 26, Broncos 20. Take the TEXANS and the OVER.

Falcons @ Patriots — Spread: Patriots −5.5

O/U: 44.5

Yeah, so I am still a little mad at Atlanta for screwing me over last week. Bijan Robinson, I thought, was the surest of sure bets to have a big game. I may, or may not have, headlined my picks' article last week by proclaiming Bijan was going to threaten the 200-yard rushing mark. Well, he barely broke the 20-yard rushing mark. He had 25.

And now – full disclosure – they are going up against my Patriots! Not a good combination for my making this pick. But that is what is making me cautious. The Patriots are due for a letdown against one of these teams. At some point, they may, as they used to say, "believe their press clippings" and get a little full of themselves. I don't think it will be this week.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Falcons 16. Take the PATRIOTS and the UNDER.

49ers @ Giants — Spread: 49ers −2.5

O/U: 48.5

The Giants suffered a tough break, literally, when rookie Cam Skattebo suffered a dislocated ankle. OK, so maybe it's not literal. Is dislocated the same as broken? Either way, it is painful. I am not ashamed to say I have not seen the video.

Similar to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, the 49ers are hoping to get their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, back for this one with hopes of saving their playoff chances. Mac Jones got off to a great start in relief, but we here in New England know that once things start going bad for Jones, which they have, it tends to snowball out of control, quickly.

Prediction: San Francisco 26, Giants 17. Take the 49ers and the UNDER.

Colts @ Steelers — Spread: Colts −3.5

O/U: 50.5

I can't figure out who the Steelers are. I started out thinking they weren't good, but I may have gotten tricked into thinking they were good after their three-game winning streak against the Patriots, Vikings, and Browns. Or maybe I'm just not use to their offense being decent (11th in the NFL in scoring - 25 points per game), but their defense being horrendous (30th in the NFL giving up 386 yards per game).

I have figured out the Colts, though. They are gooooood.

Prediction: Colts 37, Steelers 27. Take the COLTS and the OVER.

Chargers @ Titans — Spread: Chargers −9.5 O/U: 43.5

There is not much to be said about this one. It is only a matter of how much the Chargers will blow out the Titans. I think I can copy and paste that for the rest of the season and just sub out "Chargers" for whoever the Titans opponent is that week.

Prediction: Chargers 33, Titans 19. Take the CHARGERS and the OVER.

Jaguars @ Raiders — Spread: Jaguars −2.5

O/U: 44.5

The Jaguars were a good story there for a little while. They won four of Liam Coen's first five games as Jacksonville head coach. But they have only scored 19 points in their last two games. Has the league already caught on to the offensive-minded Coen? This will be his first major test – can he make the adjustments needed to stay a step ahead of his opponents?

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Raiders 20. Take the JAGUARS and the UNDER.

Saints @ Rams — Spread: Rams −14.5

O/U: 43.5

The Saints are in the same boat that I have the Titans, and now they are switching quarterbacks and going to the rookie, Tyler Shough . It is only a matter of how much will the Rams blow them out.

Prediction: Rams 28, Saints 20. Take the SAINTS and the OVER.

Chiefs @ Bills — Spread: Chiefs −2.5

O/U: 52.5

The game of the week features the Chiefs and the Bills in – wait for it – what could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. This is the regular season, so the Bills will – according to history – win.

Patrick Mahomes is only 1-4 against Josh Allen and the Bills during the regular season. However, he is 4-0 against them in the playoffs. Mahomes may let Allen have his cookie.

But the Bills are a flawed team. This will be the last time these two teams see each other this year.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 26. Take the CHIEFS and the OVER.

Seahawks @ Commanders — Spread: Seahawks −2.5

O/U: 47.5

I don't know why we are stuck watching this game on Sunday night instead of the Chiefs and Bills, but whatever. Sam Darnold can be fun to watch. Jason Smith-Njigba, definitely, is. The Seahawks knew what they were doing when they felt fine with shipping DK Metcalf away. JSN was ready to be the main man. He leads the NFL with 819 yards receiving.

The Commanders are hoping to get Jayden Daniels back this week. Unfortunately, they will be without Terry McLaurin again. At 3-5, this is just not the Commanders' year.

Prediction: Seahawks 33, Commanders 20. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.

Monday
Cardinals @ Cowboys — Spread: Cowboys −3 O/U: 54.5

This is easy. The Cowboys are home. They play really well at home and, most likely, they will win, or tie.

Prediction: Cowboys 33, Cardinals 27. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.