Week 8 NFL Picks and Predictions: Aubrey breaks FG record, Bijan rushes for 150-plus

There are questions at quarterback with several teams entering Week 8: NY Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, 49ers, Panthers, and Commanders. There have been some surprise teams who are no longer considered surprises, but legitimate threats in the playoffs like the Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, and, maybe, Bears.

The game of the week last week had to have been the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants. The Broncos were shut out for the first three quarters. The Giants had a 19-0 lead going into the final quarter when all hell broke loose. There is not enough time to explain everything that happened. Suffice to say with about seven minutes left in the game, the Giants had a 99.8% chance of winning, according to ESPN's Gamecast. With one minute left, Denver had a 96.7% chance of winning. With thirty-seven seconds left, the Giants had an 89.3% chance of winning. Ultimately, Denver won, 33-32, in part due to a missed extra point on New York's final touchdown. The Giants released that kicker this week.

I am seeing a trend this year that I am better as a bettor playing moneylines over anything else. Here were my results for Week 7:

Last Week

• Straight Up: 12-3
• Against the Spread (ATS):  8-7
• Over/Under: 7-8

For the Season

• Straight Up: 69-37-1 (64.95%)
• Against the Spread (ATS): 56-53 (51.4%)
• Over/Under: 50-57 (46.73%)

Let's get ready to turn the page.

Thursday

Vikings @ Chargers — Spread: Chargers −3 | O/U: 44.5

These are two teams that are coming off losses last week. The Chargers got crushed by the Colts, 38-24. Justin Herbert passed for 420 yards, but he isn't getting any help from his running game or his defense. That is surprising to me coming from a Jim Harbaugh coached team. The Chargers might be getting a little bit healthier this week if they can get offensive lineman Joe Alt back.

The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles where they had a potential touchdown catch by T.J. Hockenson overturned. I thought it was a catch, but nobody knows what constitutes "a catch" anymore. JJ McCarthy is healthy enough to be the emergency quarterback, but Minnesota keeps running Carson Wentz out there. Wentz has now thrown two interceptions in two of his last three games. And now he is dealing with a sore left shoulder. The Vikings might be getting running back Aaron Jones back this week. Jordan Mason has been more than adequate as his replacement.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Vikings 23. Take the CHARGERS and the OVER.

Sunday

Dolphins @ Falcons — Spread: Falcons −7.5 | O/U: 45.5

The Dolphins are dead. Their loss to the Browns sealed the deal. Somehow Mike McDaniel is still their head coach. Tua Tagovalioa has now thrown three interceptions in each of his last two games and he was benched. I can't see that team having any fight left in them.

The Falcons are two different teams at home and on the road. They are playing at home this week against a team that has quit. I don't care if it is Penix (knee injury) or Cousins starting for Atlanta. If you want a prop bet lock – take Bijan Robinson and all his overs. I don't care how high they are.

Prediction: Falcons 30, Dolphins 16. Take the FALCONS and the OVER.

Browns @ Patriots — Spread: Patriots −7 | O/U: 40.5

This will be a "slow your roll" game for the Patriots hype train. The Patriots spotted the Titans a touchdown and played around with their running game before unleashing Drake Maye. The result was an easy, 31-13, victory for New England as they improved their record to 5-2. Drake Maye completed 21 of 23 passes for a team record 91.3% completion rate. That's right – this is the same team that had Tom Brady as their quarterback for nearly two decades.

The Cleveland defense is the top defense in the league. TreVeyon Henderson's college teammate, Quinshon Jenkins, is their sole weapon on offense, but he has had no issues handling the workload. He had 18 carries in the first half alone last week against the Dolphins. The difference in this game will be at the quarterback position. Rookie Dillon Gabriel is the starting quarterback and he hardly ever throws the ball more than ten yards downfield. The Browns' defense is awesome, but they are not as good on the road. Don't expect too many big plays from either team.

Prediction: Patriots 20, Browns 16. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.

Bills @ Panthers — Spread: Bills −7.5 | O/U: 46.5

Buffalo is on a two-game losing streak and coming off a bye week. The Panthers – believe it or not – are on a three-game winning streak. And Bryce Young is still their quarterback. I never I thought I'd see the day. However, Young may be out this game and I don't see that as being that much of a negative. Veteran Andy Dalton has, historically, been very good in his first start off the bench before reminding people why he is a backup at this stage of his career. The Panthers are 3-0 at home this year. This will be a close one as the Bills are vulnerable to the running game and the Panthers have a good one.

Prediction: Bills 26, Panthers 24. Take the PANTHERS and the OVER.

Bears @ Ravens — Spread: Ravens −6.5 | O/U: 50.5

Will Lamar Jackson be back this week? Everyone expected it to be a lock after Baltimore's bye week, but he didn't participate in Monday's practice and has been a limited participant since. I would take the Bears and the points even with Jackson starting, but I am tempted to take the Bears to win outright if he doesn't play, or is limited. I'm banking on the latter. The Ravens defense has been a sieve this year and the Bears offense is cooking.

Prediction: Bears 33, Ravens 27. Take the BEARS and the OVER.

Giants @ Eagles — Spread: Eagles −7 | O/U: 43.5

These two teams played just two weeks ago. The Giants pulled off a stunner by dominating the Eagles, 34-17, on a nationally televised Thursday night game. The Giants were equally stunned with a historic collapse against the Denver Broncos last week, giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter after shutting out the Broncos for the first three quarters. The Eagles will be looking for revenge.

Prediction: Eagles 23, Giants 17. Take the GIANTS and the UNDER.

49ers @ Texans — Spread: Texans −1.5 | O/U: 41.5

Brock Purdy has been a limited participant in practice this week for the 49ers. Does it really matter? At this point, the 49ers are playing equally as well with Mac Jones in there. Coach Mike Shanahan wanted Jones in the 2021 draft for a reason. He is a perfect fit for his offense. I just hope Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy. It'd be amazing to see what kind of numbers he can put up in a full season. He is on pace for 1,200 yards receiving.

The Texans (2-4) will, most likely, be without star wideout Nico Collins this week due to him being in concussion protocol. Houston is 2-6 against the NFC the last two seasons.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Texans 19. Take SAN FRANCISCO and the UNDER.

Buccaneers @ Saints — Spread: Buccaneers −6.5 | O/U: 47.5

All I needed was Tampa and Detroit to go over on points to win me three five-leg parlays last week for decent amounts. I thought I had a sure thing. Detroit did their part. Tampa and Baker Mayfield laid an egg. Thanks, Baker. I guess it will be Taco Bell for me again this week.

Prediction: Buccaneers 22, Saints 19. Take the SAINTS and the UNDER.

Cowboys @ Broncos — Spread: Broncos −3 | O/U: 49.5

The Broncos will be riding high coming into this week's matchup with the Cowboys. If Jaxson Dart and the Giants can put up 32 points on Denver in Denver, what will Dak Prescott do? Just keep in mind Prescott's home and away splits.

As a side prediction: Brandon Aubrey will break Justin Tucker's 66-yard longest field goal record in this one.

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Broncos 30. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.

Titans @ Colts — Spread: Colts −14 | O/U: 47.5

This game is just unfair. The Colts put a whooping on the Chargers last week and the Titans took a whooping from the Patriots. Logic dictates the Colts will absolutely demolish the Titans. But logic doesn't always dictate in sports betting.

Prediction: Colts 37, Titans 17. Take the COLTS and the OVER.

Packers @ Steelers — Spread: Packers −3.5 | O/U: 44.5

The Steelers lost to the Bengals last week in the battle of the 40-plus-year-old quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers, actually, got outdueled by Joe Flacco. The Steelers are a tough team to handicap. Is there defense good or isn't it? The answer lies somewhere in between, depending on if they are creating turnovers or not. It has been a very opportunistic D.

The Packers continue to be considered one of the elite teams in football, but they again struggled against Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona Cardinals, barely eking out a 27-23 victory. They are an about .500 team on the road the last three years (10-9-1). They are 2-4 against the AFC on the road over that span of time, including a 13-10 loss to the Browns this year.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Packers 20. Take the STEELERS and the UNDER.

Monday

Commanders @ Chiefs — Spread: Chiefs −10.5 | O/U: 48.5

It's too bad – we are being deprived of a very exciting Monday night game due to Jayden Daniels being ruled out with a hamstring injury. That was the concern coming out of college and going into draft day – could Jayden Daniels' slender build survive the rigors of the NFL? This Sunday will be the third game he has missed this year. He hasn't seemed right in the games he has played. Marcus Mariota gets the start and he had a backbreaking pick-six last week.

The Chiefs are getting healthy and they are coming off a 31-0 victory against the Raiders.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Commanders 16. Take the CHIEFS and the UNDER.