Week 4 NFL Picks: Aaron Rodgers Just Won't Go Away
Yeah, it was another tough week.
What happened Philadelphia? Seattle? Cincinnati? How about you, Carolina? Against Cleveland?
It absolutely baffles me. Makes me wonder.
Especially when Jalen Hurts throws a fourth down pass 20 yards out-of-bounds on the sideline with his team losing by three scores in the fourth quarter. In a game the recent Super Bowl champion Eagles were only a small, itsy, bitsy favorite ("please, please, please bet me") against a third-string starting quarterback who hadn't played in three years.
Anyway...
Here were my results for Week 3 and where I stand for the season:
2026 NFL Picks Record
My Best Bets weren’t even mediocre bets. I went 1-4, with Cincinnati, Seattle, Philadelphia and Carolina all blowing it for me.
I have zero regrets making those picks. And I’d bet those same four games 10 times out of 10 the same way if I had to do it all over again.
Well, not if I knew now how those games turned out. That would just be stupid.
On to Week 4.
Thursday Night Football – October 1, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)
Straight-Up Pick: CLEVELAND
ATS Pick: CLEVELAND +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 38.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I can’t believe Cleveland has won two games in a row with Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
I’m pretty sure Cleveland can’t believe it either.
I probably should have known Aaron Rodgers wasn’t just going to fade quietly into the sunset. After throwing for only 187 yards with zero touchdowns against the Patriots in Week 2, Rodgers bounced back by throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh has lost four straight games in Cleveland—and those Browns teams haven’t exactly been world-beaters.
For whatever it’s worth, Pittsburgh also hasn’t won a Thursday night road game since 2007.
Score: CLEVELAND 23, PITTSBURGH 21
Sunday, October 4, 2026 – London
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders – 9:30 AM (NFL Network)
Straight-Up Pick: INDIANAPOLIS
ATS Pick: INDIANAPOLIS -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
The Colts managed to beat Houston despite Jonathan Taylor rushing for only 68 yards and playing without Alec Pierce. Maybe this isn’t going to be a lost season in Indianapolis after all.
Washington—with their backup quarterback—somehow beat Seattle in Sam Darnold’s return. The Seahawks certainly helped them out by turning the ball over 5 times.
The last time Taylor played an international game—which was last year against Atlanta—he rushed for 244 yards in Berlin, Germany. This one will be in England, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor approach 200 yards in this one.
Score: INDIANAPOLIS 27, WASHINGTON 17
Sunday, October 4 – 1:00 PM Window
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: ARIZONA
ATS Pick: ARIZONA -1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
You can pretty much throw out last week’s Giants performance against Tennessee because of the wild nor’easter they had to play through.
Arizona, meanwhile, continues to impress me—even in defeat.
The Cardinals managed to cover in San Francisco while putting up 30 points against the 49ers.
The downside?
Their defense gave up 38 points.
That’s why I’m looking at OVERS in this game—and probably quite a few Arizona games going forward.
Score: ARIZONA 27, NY GIANTS 20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: BUFFALO -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Let me know if you’ve heard this one already:
Drake Maye is in a slump.
In New England, the discussion has gotten even more concerning. There are people questioning whether Maye is still the long-term answer, and you’re even hearing some calls for Tommy DeVito.
I’m still optimistic about Maye.
I think part of the problem is that he has faced one difficult defense after another. Eventually he needs a get-right game against somebody like the Jets or Dolphins.
This isn’t that game.
Score: BUFFALO 33, NEW ENGLAND 17
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: NY JETS
ATS Pick: NY JETS +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Okay. Case Keenum was a great story for one week.
Sometimes adrenaline can carry you through that first game. Eventually, though, talent wins out.
Keenum is 38 years old, and there’s a reason he hadn’t started an NFL game since 2023.
The Jets deserve better. More specifically, they deserve a better head coach.
Score: NY JETS 26, CHICAGO 23
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: BALTIMORE
ATS Pick: TENNESSEE +11.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
I’m not as big a believer in Baltimore as a lot of other people seem to be.
Tennessee was driving for a potential game-winning touchdown against the Giants before Cam Ward threw an interception in the end zone.
Tennessee will keep this one close.
Score: BALTIMORE 27, TENNESSEE 19
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 51.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Joe Burrow owns Trevor Lawrence.
Burrow is 3-0 against him going all the way back to their college days.
So naturally... I’m picking Jacksonville. This season has shown me sometimes you need to throw stats, and logic, out the window.
Score: JACKSONVILLE 33, CINCINNATI 27
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
I’m going down with the Cowboys.
I think I’m addicted to their offense. One thing I’ve learned in life: when somebody says, “I think I am,” they usually are.
Dallas suffers from the same problem as the Jets. They need a competent head coach.
Houston may be getting Nico Collins back, but at 0-3, it may already be too late for the Texans.
Score: DALLAS 30, HOUSTON 23
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: LA RAMS -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Rams blew a 16-0 lead in Denver.
The Eagles just wish they could have scored 16 points last week. They scored seven.
I should have trusted my read on the Eagles. They looked so bad this summer at joint practices with the Patriots.
Score: LA RAMS 27, PHILADELPHIA 19
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: TAMPA BAY
ATS Pick: TAMPA BAY +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 39.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The rest of the country is starting to discover something I’ve believed for a couple of years:
Green Bay just isn’t that good.
The Packers are 1-7 since losing Micah Parsons. Their one win came in overtime against the Jets in Week 2.
Tampa will be without Baker Mayfield for 3-4 weeks, and that may not be a bad thing.
Score: TAMPA BAY 22, GREEN BAY 21
Sunday, October 4 – 4:05 PM Window
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) – 4:05 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: MINNESOTA
ATS Pick: MINNESOTA -10.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 38.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Miami was already making a pretty convincing case for being the worst team in football.
Now they’ve lost De’Von Achane for the season.
Minnesota won in Tampa in Kyler Murray’s return, and for now, this is Murray’s team. Then they traded J.J. McCarthy to the Giants. Whatever the Vikings’ long-term quarterback plan might be can wait.
Miami has enough problems dealing with the present.
Score: MINNESOTA 23, MIAMI 10
Sunday, October 4 – 4:25 PM Window
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders – 4:25 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: LAS VEGAS
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS +4.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I just have a feeling about this one. I think something magical might be brewing in Vegas.
I told you I am trying something new this week—throwing logic out the window.
Score: LAS VEGAS 27, KANSAS CITY 24
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – 4:25 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: SAN FRANCISCO -3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Denver seems to sleepwalk through the first half of games and then suddenly wake up after halftime.
They might be able to get away with that in Denver.
They won't get away with it in San Francisco.
Score: SAN FRANCISCO 28, DENVER 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) – 4:25 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: SEATTLE -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ah, yes — that vaunted Seattle defense. That’s all I hear about when people talk about the Seahawks.
So how the hell did Washington score 33 points on them without Jayden Daniels?
The Chargers are staring 0-4 directly in the face.
Score: SEATTLE 28, LA CHARGERS 20
Sunday Night Football
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers – 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)
Straight-Up Pick: CAROLINA
ATS Pick: CAROLINA +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 50.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over the course of a season, your opinions about teams are going to change.
If you let your ego get in the way and refuse to admit you were wrong about somebody, you’re probably not going to do very well betting sports. You have to be open-minded and flexible.
Having said that... I’m coming around on Carolina. Despite losing to Cleveland, Bryce Young threw for 291 yards.
That came after throwing for 287 yards against Atlanta and 361 yards against Chicago.
Detroit’s secondary is in shambles right now, and Carolina went 5-3 at home last season.
I’m taking Carolina to beat Detroit outright. I think Dan Campbell is on the hot seat.
Score: CAROLINA 31, DETROIT 29
Monday Night Football – October 5, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) – 8:15 PM (ESPN)
Straight-Up Pick: NEW ORLEANS
ATS Pick: NEW ORLEANS -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Saints are another team I’m becoming a believer in.
Atlanta looked great in Michael Penix Jr.’s return, but this feels like a classic letdown spot. It’s similar to what I’m expecting from Chicago after its big win last week.
New Orleans has been explosive offensively. I definitely like the points in this one.
Score: NEW ORLEANS 32, ATLANTA 23