Here’s a disclaimer for anyone reading this:

YOU NEED TO BE STUPID TO BET ON SPORTS!

How’s that for self-promotion?

If you still want to continue reading this article, thank you.

After a record-breaking offensive explosion to open the season, Week 2 gave us a bunch of duds.

Ten of the 16 games finished under their consensus point totals. Six teams—Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta, Chicago, the New York Giants and Minnesota—didn’t even score a touchdown.

Minnesota beat Chicago 9-3 in a game that featured exactly zero touchdowns.

What is this—soccer?

In Week 1, nine of 16 games went OVER.

Chicago scored 59 points in Week 1. They scored 3 points in Week 2.

Cleveland looked like a high school team in Week 1, then turned around and upset Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in Week 2.

You figure it out.

Some weeks I feel like I’d be better off throwing darts at a board.

I watch plenty of betting videos on YouTube while researching my picks, so I can at least take some solace in knowing I wasn’t the only one who had a subpar Week 2.

These things tend to even themselves out over a full season.

At least that’s what I keep telling myself.

If you know what you’re doing.

That’s the big caveat.

Here’s how Week 2 went and where I stand through two weeks:

My Best Bets did rebound from the Week 1 disaster, going 3-2 in Week 2. That puts them at 5-5 for the season.

Onward and upward. Let's take a look at Week 3:

Thursday Night Football – September 24, 2026

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6) – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Straight-Up Pick: GREEN BAY
ATS Pick: ATLANTA +6
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boy, did Atlanta lay an egg last week.

They were a field goal away from laying a goose egg.

The Falcons got shellacked by Carolina, 34-3. I feel bad for Bijan Robinson. He’s too great a player to be wasting his career in Atlanta. It’s starting to remind me of Barry Sanders playing for the Detroit Lions.

Atlanta does get Michael Penix Jr. back this week, and he has officially been named the starter.

So that’s a plus. It has to be, right?

Get used to seeing Atlanta on your TV. They have three consecutive primetime games coming up.

Woohoo!

Green Bay probably should have lost to the Jets last week, and the Packers enter this game with a banged-up offensive line and receiving corps. Jayden Reed and starting guard Aaron Banks have already been ruled out.

Good thing they’re playing Atlanta at Lambeau.

Score: GREEN BAY 19, ATLANTA 16

Sunday, September 27, 2026 – 1:00 PM Window

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-7) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: BUFFALO -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 50.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chargers might go 0-9 to start the season.

Take a look at their next seven opponents:

Buffalo and Josh Allen, on the other hand, have come out of the gates swinging.

The Bills scored 77 points through their first two games, the most in the NFL, and now they get their second consecutive game at their new home stadium.

Score: BUFFALO 34, LA CHARGERS 21

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: CAROLINA
ATS Pick: CAROLINA -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

You wanna guess who is second to the Bills in scoring so far this year?

I’ll wait.

It’ll probably take you a few guesses.

It is your Carolina Panthers.

I have been one of the biggest Bryce Young haters dating back to his college days. But even I’m starting to wonder if he might finally be turning a corner after three rough NFL seasons.

The Panthers might actually be a team to watch.

Score: CAROLINA 24, CLEVELAND 16

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: DETROIT
ATS Pick: NY JETS +6.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

I was saying the same thing about the New York Jets after Week 1. Maybe these guys are sneaky good.

Then Week 2 reminded me who their coach is.

I still think the Jets can keep this competitive—I was tempted to pick them straight up—but Detroit gets it done at home. I think Geno Smith has a big game. The Lions' secondary sucks right now.

Score: DETROIT 31, NY JETS 27

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: HOUSTON
ATS Pick: HOUSTON -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Indianapolis put up a surprisingly good fight against the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Alec Pierce is back on IR dealing with the same heel injury he had surgery on last year. There are a lot of teams breathing a big sigh of relief they didn't shell out big money in free agency to the guy who was widely believed to be the top wide receiver on the market. I found it laughable.

Houston has started the season 0-2, but it feels like Houston always starts out 0-2 and then makes the playoffs.

The biggest thing giving me pause is Nico Collins. He has missed practice all week with the same hamstring issue that kept him out last week.

Houston is a completely different offense without him.

Score: HOUSTON 20, INDIANAPOLIS 17

Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) at Miami Dolphins – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: KANSAS CITY
ATS Pick: KANSAS CITY -11.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

It’s early in the season, but I’ve already determined two things.

I am not picking the Browns or Dolphins to win any ootball games this year, or even cover. When they do—like Cleveland did in Tampa—it will be a shock to me.

Kansas City laying double digits on the road in the heat in Miami isn’t something I am to psyched about.

I'd much rather take KC to cover in the first half (I got it at -6.5!). I don't want to sweat, no pun intended, the 4th quarter with fatigue being a factor, the Chiefs resting their stars, and the Dolphins scoring garbage points.

Score: KANSAS CITY 28, MIAMI 13

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-3) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: TENNESSEE
ATS Pick: TENNESSEE +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Might Cam Ward be following the same trajectory as Bryce Young? I saw a little swagger in Ward in Week 2 that I haven't seen yet. Probably because he doesn't anything to deserve a swagger.

Meanwhile, the “injury-prone” label is unfortunately going to start following Jaxson Dart around. Dart needs surgery on his left knee and will miss the rest of the regular season.

Giants coach John Harbaugh said he wouldn’t completely rule out Dart returning for the playoffs. As Jim Mora once famously said,

Playoffs? Don’t talk about—playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?

Score: TENNESSEE 16, NY GIANTS 13

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: CINCINNATI
ATS Pick: CINCINNATI -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Like Happy Gilmore said condescendingly to his rival, Shooter McGavin, after finally learning how to putt:

“Happy learned how to putt. Uh oh."

The same can now be said about the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals suddenly—fans in Cincy would say "finally"—have a defense to complement Joe Burrows, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

That is a big "uh oh" for the AFC.

Score: CINCINNATI 27, PITTSBURGH 16

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Washington Commanders – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: SEATTLE -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

It looks like Sam Darnold might be getting close to returning. He was back at practice Wednesday on a limited basis after dealing with a sore ass, and Mike Macdonald says he might play this week.

Someone who is definitely not ready to return will be Jayden Daniels.

Daniels dislocated his left elbow against Dallas—the same elbow he dislocated last season. Fortunately, X-rays showed no fracture, but Washington still hasn’t established a timetable for his return.

I know the concern coming out of college was his slight frame. I never imagined his non-throwing elbow would become the body part that will haunt his career.

And what was up with his teammates walking past him when he was on the turf injured?

Score: SEATTLE 23, WASHINGTON 14

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is one of the two games I’m looking forward to most this week.

Liam Coen gets to coach against the team he grew up following as a kid in Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Drake Maye is in a major slump, and playing in the Florida heat against a tough Jacksonville defense doesn’t feel like the remedy.

The Patriots’ biggest concern throughout the summer was their lack of depth, and that issue is already beginning to show just three weeks into the season. By comparison, Jacksonville’s injury report is much less impactful than New England’s.

One Jaguars player to watch closely is wide receiver Parker Washington. After all the attention Brian Thomas Jr. received following his breakout rookie season a couple of years ago, it is Washington who has started to emerge as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target.

The good news for New England is that Carlton Davis III appears set to return and start at cornerback opposite Christian Gonzalez. They will be tested by Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence, et al.

Score: JACKSONVILLE 23, NEW ENGLAND 16

Sunday, September 27 – 4:05 PM Window

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) – 4:05 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: ARIZONA +8.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Look up the word “letdown” in the dictionary and you might see a picture of Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona Cardinals.

Coming off that huge upset of the Chargers in the opener, Arizona was a complete no-show in a 31-7 home loss to Seattle.

Speaking of no-shows...

What has happened to Marvin Harrison Jr.?

I think San Francisco wins easily, but I think Arizona scores some garbage points to cover the spread.

Score: SAN FRANCISCO 27, ARIZONA 20

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:05 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: TAMPA BAY
ATS Pick: TAMPA BAY +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Oh, Tampa. You broke my heart. It’s embarrassing getting knocked out of a survivor pool in Week 2. At least I didn’t take the Chargers in Week 1.

You think the Bucs are regretting giving Baker Mayfield that mega deal just days before the season started?

Tampa is 2-9 over its last 11 games after starting last season 6-2. During that stretch, Mayfield has thrown 10 interceptions and lost five fumbles.

Here’s another interesting tidbit:

Tampa has gone 0-11 against the spread during that stretch.

And yet...

Here I am taking them ATS. They have to win eventually, right?

As a sidebar, that’s called the gambler’s fallacy — assuming a result is “due” simply because the opposite outcome has happened repeatedly. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads nine times in a row, the odds are still only 50/50 that it comes up tails on the tenth flip.

Score: TAMPA BAY 23, MINNESOTA 21

Sunday, September 27 – 4:25 PM Window

Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys – 4:25 PM (CBS) – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 52.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

This game is being played in Brazil, and there has been plenty of controversy surrounding the condition of the field at Maracanã Stadium.

Heavy rain and constant soccer use have beaten up the grass, and local players have publicly complained about the surface.

There was speculation that Dallas could become the fallback location if the field couldn’t be made playable, but the NFL has since pushed back on that possibility. NFL field director Nick Pappas said the league has “no concerns” about the surface and that moving the game is not being discussed.

The field is the only thing keeping me from giving this OVER a five-star rating.

If this game were being played in Dallas, I’d hammer the over. As is, I am worried about slipping and injuries.

Score: DALLAS 30, BALTIMORE 27

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-3) – 4:25 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: NEW ORLEANS
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Excuse me. Any room over here on the New Orleans Saints bandwagon?

I love teams that know how to finish games. That is something that cannot be taught. You either have it or you don't.

New Orleans has it.

More specifically, Saints' quarterback Tyler Shough has it.

If New Orleans can figure out how to play the first three quarters as well as they play the fourth, watch out.

Tyler Shough looks like the real deal. And so does head coach Kellen Moore. Both have surprised me.

I don’t mind being proven wrong.

Score: NEW ORLEANS 21, LAS VEGAS 20

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos – 8:20 PM (NBC)

Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: LA RAMS -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Denver was one quarter away from joining the Chargers at 0-2 in the basement of the AFC West.

And these were two teams people considered legitimate AFC Championship contenders entering the season.

Fortunately for Denver, the Broncos rallied from a 13-3 deficit against Jacksonville to win 20-13.

They still have issues offensively.

The Rams do not.

Los Angeles showed no ill effects from their disastrous Australia trip when it dismantled the Giants 28-6 Monday night.

No Puka Nacua?

No problem.

Davante Adams went off for eight catches, 195 yards and two touchdowns against New York. Nacua’s availability for Week 3 remains in doubt, but the Rams just showed they have enough offensive weapons without him.

Score: LA RAMS 28, DENVER 23

Monday Night Football – September 28, 2026

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Chicago Bears – 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Straight-Up Pick: PHILADELPHIA
ATS Pick: PHILADELPHIA -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Considering his reaction when he got hurt Sunday, Chicago has to feel fortunate that Caleb Williams isn’t lost for the season.

Head coach Ben Johnson says Williams is week-to-week with a hamstring injury and hasn’t completely ruled him out Monday night, although he isn’t expected to practice this week.

The bigger problem?

Backup Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol.

That means 38-year-old Case Keenum could be starting on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia hasn’t looked particularly good through two weeks, just as I expected.

But the Eagles should be good enough against Chicago’s third-string quarterback and that Bears defense.

Score: PHILADELPHIA 23, CHICAGO 16

5 BEST BETS

Against the Spread

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Seattle Seahawks -7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Carolina Panthers -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under

Tennessee Titans/New York Giants UNDER 40.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐