Week 1 was one for the books. Literally.

Typical advice for the opening week of an NFL season is to lean toward the under. A lot of teams barely played their starters during the preseason, so Week 1 is the first real game action for many of them. A little rust would certainly be understandable.

Au contraire.

Week 1 of the 2026 regular season produced nearly 50 points per game, tying 2012 for the highest-scoring opening week in NFL history.

That's also part of what makes Week 1 so unpredictable, so I was pretty happy to finish above .500 in all three categories.

This is my first year doing a Best Bets section.

Maybe that was a bad idea.

I went just 2-3 on my five Best Bets—which means I went 7-4 on everything else. I need to choose my best bets better.

But at least I didn't have as bad of a week as Drake Maye or the Chargers.

Now it's on to Week 2. The goal is simple: keep the overall record moving in the right direction and do a better job with the games I feel strongest about.

Let's get to the picks.

Thursday Night Football – September 17, 2026

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-4.5) – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Straight-Up Pick: BUFFALO
ATS Pick: DETROIT +4.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★½

Over/Under: 54.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★½

This game seems destined to push that Week 1 scoring average even higher. It will also be the big unveiling of Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium, so you know the energy level is going to be off the charts. The Bills will want to christen their new home in style, but Detroit has a proven track record that they can put points on the board, too.

Score: Buffalo 34, Detroit 30

Sunday, September 20, 2026 – 1:00 PM Window

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: ATLANTA
ATS Pick: ATLANTA +2.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★½

Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★½

Carolina hung with Chicago for a while last week. Then the Bears found another gear and ended up putting 59 points on the Panthers.

I picked Atlanta to upset Pittsburgh last week, and even with Cooper Rush at quarterback, they had every opportunity to win. They may get Michael Penix Jr. back this week, but either way, the Falcons' offense starts with one guy.

It's all about Bijan Robinson. I think he single-handedly leads the Falcons to a win at home.

Score: Atlanta 21, Carolina 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: HOUSTON
ATS Pick: HOUSTON -2.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★½

Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★½

I thought Houston was supposed to have the best defense in football. Heck, I even heard comparisons to the 2002 Buccaneers, the 2000 Ravens and, yes, even the 1985 Bears.

Then they gave up 36 points to Buffalo in Week 1.

Now they get Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins ... and Mike Gesicki.

Don't laugh. Gesicki has become one of Burrow's favorite targets. He led Cincinnati last week with 7 receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown.

Score: Houston 27, Cincinnati 24

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: TAMPA BAY
ATS Pick: TAMPA BAY -8.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★½

Over/Under: 41.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★½

Tampa Bay basically fumbled away its game against Cincinnati. Maybe it was a Baker Mayfield hangover after signing his mega-contract just days before the game.

Either way, I can't foresee myself picking Cleveland very often this season, especially as long as Deshaun Watson is starting.

Score: Tampa Bay 27, Cleveland 10

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at New York Jets – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: NY JETS
ATS Pick: NY JETS +4.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

The Jets might be sneaky good this year.

And I'm still not sold on Green Bay. I've thought the Packers—and Jordan Love in particular—have been overrated for a couple of years now. Getting more than a field goal at home is enough for me to take a shot on the Jets outright.

Score: NY Jets 22, Green Bay 19

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: CHICAGO
ATS Pick: MINNESOTA +5.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★½

Chicago head coach Ben Johnson is on record saying he wants to break the NFL's single-season scoring record.

That's quite a goal.

To surpass the 2013 Denver Broncos, who scored 606 points behind Peyton Manning's 55 touchdown passes, Chicago would need to average nearly 38 points per game over 17 games. After hanging 59 on Carolina, they're off to a pretty good start.

I still think Minnesota and their defense keeps this one close.

Score: Chicago 29, Minnesota 26

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: BALTIMORE
ATS Pick: NEW ORLEANS +8.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

Tyler Shough threw for 325 yards after halftime and overtime against Detroit as New Orleans stormed back from a 21-0 deficit.

After matching Detroit's overtime touchdown, head coach Kellen Moore decided to go for two and the win rather than extend the game. Gutsy call. It just didn't work.

Baltimore, meanwhile, looked very impressive in a 41-23 win at Indianapolis. I like the Ravens to win again, but New Orleans showed enough fight last week to make me wary of laying more than a touchdown.

Score: Baltimore 29, New Orleans 26

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Tennessee Titans – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: PHILADELPHIA
ATS Pick: PHILADELPHIA -7
ATS Confidence: ★★★★½

Over/Under: 39.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

Like I predicted last week, Jayden Daniels made things interesting in the fourth quarter, but Philadelphia held on for a 24-22 win.

Tennessee? They lost by 13 points to ... the Jets ... at home.

Not good.

Score: Philadelphia 26, Tennessee 10

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: NEW ENGLAND
ATS Pick: PITTSBURGH +5.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 41.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★½

The Steelers gave an Atlanta team starting its third-string quarterback every opportunity to beat them last week.

The Patriots know how that feels.

New England lost a very similar 21-14 game against Pittsburgh last season despite turning the ball over five times. They outplayed Pittsburgh the entire game. They simply kept giving it away.

Now the Patriots return home at 0-1, and Drake Maye has something to prove after New England blew a 10-0 lead against Seattle while Maye threw three fourth-quarter interceptions.

I like the Patriots to get the win. I'm just not comfortable thinking they can beat Aaron Rodgers by much more than a field goal.

Score: New England 26, Pittsburgh 23

Sunday, September 20 – 4:05 PM Window

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3) – 4:05 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE +3
ATS Confidence: ★★★★½

Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★½

Liam Coen and the Jaguars made believers out of a lot of people when they went into Denver in Week 16 last season and beat the Broncos 34-20.

Bo Nix actually threw for 363 yards that afternoon, but matching that performance would require a huge jump from what we saw Monday night in Kansas City.

Jacksonville certainly won't be intimidated by going back into Denver. They've already been there and won convincingly.

I think they do it again and leave town with their 10th straight regular-season victory.

Score: Jacksonville 27, Denver 23

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – 4:05 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: LA CHARGERS
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS +6.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

The Raiders took care of business against the hapless Dolphins, 27-13.

Ashton Jeanty recorded the first 100-yard rushing game of his young career with 102 yards on 23 carries, and Las Vegas also got him heavily involved in the passing game.

The Chargers, meanwhile, destroyed a lot of survivor pools by getting upset by Arizona in Week 1.

Would it surprise me if the Raiders beat the Chargers outright?

No.

Score: LA Chargers 20, Las Vegas 16

Sunday, September 20 – 4:25 PM Window

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: SAN FRANCISCO -13.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

OK, I underestimated the 49ers. I'll admit it.

What impressed me most in their upset of the Rams in Australia was San Francisco's linebacker tandem of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Those two seemed to be everywhere.

Now they get a Miami offense that struggled badly in Las Vegas. It's a huge number to lay in the NFL, but after what I saw from old-time receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, I'm willing to do it.

Score: San Francisco 31, Miami 16

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: ARIZONA +3.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★½

Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★½

Seattle will be without Sam Darnold for the foreseeable future because of his glute injury, while Arizona is coming off its huge Week 1 upset of the Chargers.

Darnold may be hurt, but Seattle's defense isn't.

I correctly picked Arizona to cover last week but couldn't quite pull the trigger on the outright upset. This week, I'm expecting a little bit of a letdown.

Seattle has won the last nine meetings between these teams, although Drew Lock's 10-18 career record as a starter certainly worries me.

Seattle holds on to win behind their defense and they're running game, but Arizona covers.

Score: Seattle 23, Arizona 20

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS -4.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★½

Over/Under: 50.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★½

Dallas was a major disappointment Sunday night against the Giants. The Cowboys couldn't cover anybody, couldn't tackle anybody and, yes, screwed me twice on my Best Bets. I picked them to win and cover, and I also thought they'd get into a shootout and manage to hit the over easily.

I failed to take into consideration how bad they are on the road.

Dak Prescott has essentially been two different quarterbacks at home and on the road. In 2025, he averaged about 300 passing yards per game at home compared with 238 on the road. His career record is also 47-21-1 at home compared with a pedestrian 36-34 away from Dallas.

Washington put up the kind of fight I expected in Philadelphia. I think that's going to be the story of its season: competitive in a lot of games, but not quite good enough to turn enough of them into wins.

This won't be one of those wins.

Score: Dallas 33, Washington 26

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – 8:20 PM (NBC)

Straight-Up Pick: KANSAS CITY
ATS Pick: KANSAS CITY -6.5
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★½

As Shaquille O'Neal once said on Hot Ones:

"I apologize, Kansas."

I didn't go full Trent Dilfer prematurely declaring the Patriots dynasty dead in 2013, but I did write last week that the Chiefs were getting old.

Maybe hold that thought.

I think Indianapolis is going to be similar to Washington this season. Jonathan Taylor will keep the Colts in plenty of games, but their quarterback play is going to make it difficult for them to win more than six or seven.

Kansas City should control this one.

Score: Kansas City 26, Indianapolis 16

Monday Night Football – September 21, 2026

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-7) – 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: NY GIANTS +7
ATS Confidence: ★★★★

Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ★★★★

The Giants are going to be a fun team to watch this year.

Also, is it just me, or does John Harbaugh seem extra prickly this year? Maybe I just never noticed it as much when he was in Baltimore.

As for the Rams, I underestimated just how bad the decision was to wait until the day before the San Francisco game to fly to Australia. I probably shouldn't have picked them to win, and I definitely shouldn't have made them a Best Bet to cover.

Back home this week, I expect a better Rams team—but I still think the Giants hang around.

Score: LA Rams 28, NY Giants 24

5 BEST BETS

Against the Spread

Pick: DALLAS -4.5
Pick: SAN FRANCISCO -13.5
Pick: TAMPA BAY -8.5

Over/Under

Pick: DET/BUFFALO +53.5
Pick: KC/INDY -46.5