Week 18 NFL Preview: Could it be swan songs for Rodgers and Kelce?
No one is more sorry to see the NFL regular season come to an end than me. I have been on a heater the last few weeks – finally! It was a season of mediocrity and if there is one thing I can't stand – it is mediocrity. It's why I see a therapist.
The final week of the regular season is always a minefield to bet on. I like to stay away. At the very least, I search out games where both teams have something to play for.
Almost every team has some motivation other than winning for the final week of the regular season. Some teams are hoping to lose to improve their draft position. Some teams are jockeying for seeding and specific matchups in the playoffs. Some teams are resting their players for the playoffs or just preserving them for next season. Some generous coaching staffs may be trying to help players hit their lucrative incentives.
The only games this week that I see both teams playing a full 60 minutes of intense football are:
- Carolina @ Tampa Bay
- Seattle @ San Francisco
- Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
And that's it.
Let's take a look at my most recent results:
Last Week
- Straight Up: 10-3
- Against the Spread (ATS): 9-4
- Over/Under: 10-3
For the Season
- Straight Up: 154-94 (62.10%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 119-131 (47.60%)
- Over/Under: 125-124 (50.20%)
And now for my predictions for this week's games. Remember: I would stay away from most of these as coaching decisions will play a major role. The playoffs are right around the corner, so it is okay to sit back and just count your money this week.
🏈 SATURDAY GAMES
Panthers at Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium | 4:30 PM (ABC/ESPN)
Line: TB -3 | Total: 43.5
It's incredible to me that Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 in their last eight games and they find themselves still playing for the division championship – and a playoff spot – in the final week of the regular season.
What will be the over/under on Baker Mayfield surgeries this offseason? I am totally expecting to hear the team announce – when their season is over – that Mayfield will need two or three surgeries for injuries he sustained midway through the season.
It is so hard to pick the Panthers when their quarterback is coming off a 54-yard passing game. I have no explanation for how Bryce Young threw for 449 yards against the Falcons in Week 11. I mean – seriously! He only threw for over 200 yards in two other games other than that one. How do you explain that? Playoff teams need more out of a quarterback than that.
But how can you pick a team that is 1-7 in its last eight games? I will pinch my nose and ...
Pick: CAROLINA +3
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: CAROLINA 23, TAMPA BAY 21
Seahawks at 49ers
Levi’s Stadium | 8:00 PM (ABC/ESPN)
Line: SEA -2.5 | Total: 47.5
This is more like it. These two teams are playing for the #1 seed in the NFC and both teams are more than worthy. With all due respect to Jacksonville and New England, San Francisco is the hottest team in the NFL right now. They have won six in a row and seven of their last eight against better competition than those two teams. Brock Purdy is coming off a Josh Allen-esque 5 TD performance (3 passing, 2 rushing) in an epic 42-38 victory over the Chicago Bears.
Seattle is also riding a 6-game winning streak and they've even done better by winning 10 of their last 11. That one loss was against the Rams when Sam Darnold threw 4 interceptions and they still only lost by two. But... it is something about Darnold throwing those 4 INTs in that big matchup and his recent performance in big games.
Pick: SF +2.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO 27, SEATTLE 23
🏈 SUNDAY 1:00 PM GAMES
Cowboys at Giants
MetLife Stadium
Line: DAL -3.5 | Total: 49.5
Give the Giants credit – they are still playing hard. Fans may argue they are playing too hard as they ruined their chances of getting the top pick in next year's draft by crushing their top competition for the coveted prize, the Las Vegas Raiders, 34-10 last week.
I expect Dallas to go full out in this one, too. Their record stands at 7-8-1 and I think it will be important for first-year coach, Brian Schottenheimer, to finish with a .500 record. The Cowboys did get steamrolled by the Eagles, 41-7, in the last week of last year, however. So keep that in mind.
Pick: DAL -3.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: DALLAS 27, NY GIANTS 23
Titans at Jaguars
EverBank Stadium
Line: JAX -13.5 | Total: 47.5
I am so happy for Liam Coen. I can still remember seeing all the posts from all the Jacksonville fans after Coen's sort-of embarrassing "Du-valllll" introductory press conference. I am not exaggerating when I say all of them were negative towards Coen and predicting the Jaguars would go 0-17. Well, you were {if you can see me, I am swaying my head from side to side} wroooooong.
The Jaguars are 12-4 and will win the AFC South with a win over the (3-13) Titans. They also have a longshot chance of being the #1 seed in the AFC if they win and both Denver and New England lose.
Kudos to you, Coach Coen!
Pick: TENN +13.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: JACKSONVILLE 30, TENNESSEE 24
Colts at Texans
NRG Stadium
Line: HOU -10 | Total: 38.5
There have been a lot of great storylines this season in the NFL. How about the Houston Texans starting the season 0-3 and here they are – already having clinched a playoff spot – with a chance to win the AFC South? Davis Mills may go forgotten by many, but the Texans' season was turned around when Mills took over for a few weeks midway through the season when C.J. Stroud was hurt. Mills for MVP? Just kiddin'.
Pick: HOU -10
Total: UNDER
Final Score Prediction: HOUSTON 27, INDIANAPOLIS 10
Jets at Bills
Highmark Stadium
Line: BUF -7.5 | Total: 37.5
This will be the last game for Buffalo in their home stadium (whatever it is called now – see above, I guess). The crowd will be hyped up. I am sure Buffalo will bring out all their legends. Their most recent legend may not play in the game, though. It looks like Mitch Trubisky will be starting in place of Josh Allen. I'm not sure if the Bills will just concede Allen's 122 consecutive regular season game streak, but Allen needs a week to rest up a myriad of injuries. He has been carrying this team all year. He may just hand the ball off on the first play like he did in the final game against New England last season, and then spend the rest of the game on the sideline. Either way, I don't see the Bills losing this game.
Pick: BUF -7.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: BUFFALO 27, NY JETS 13
Saints at Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Line: ATL -3.5 | Total: 44.5
Might these be the two best teams in the pathetic NFC South right now? Maybe. This game could have meaning for the... Panthers. Huh?
If Tampa wins on Saturday, the Panthers can still win the division if the Falcons beat the Saints. That's because – believe it or not – an Atlanta win would create a three-way tie for the division lead at 8-9, and Carolina would have the three-way tie-breaker. It's small consolation for the Falcons, but it is incredible after the disappointing season they had that they could end tied for the division lead.
Pick: NO +3.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: ATLANTA 24, NEW ORLEANS 23
Browns at Bengals
Paycor Stadium
Line: CIN -7.5 | Total: 44.5
The Bengals are getting used to losing at Musical Chairs. It seems like they are always one of the best teams at the end of the regular season, but they never get a chance to prove themselves in the playoffs because they don't make it in. I expect them to take out their frustration on the Browns in their season finale.
Pick: CIN -7.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: CINCINNATI 31, CLEVELAND 17
🏈 SUNDAY 4:25 PM GAMES
Dolphins at Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Line: NE -11.5 | Total: 45.5
The Patriots should be playing all their starters for most of this game. Denver plays at the same time as them, but the Patriots' dream of getting the #1 seed and a first week bye took a serious hit when Chargers' head coach Jim Harbaugh announced he would be resting his star quarterback, Justin Herbert, against the Broncos.
There will be scoreboard watching going on, for sure. We might see Mike Vrabel pull players out early in the fourth quarter if he sees the Chargers are well behind in the Denver game.
The Patriots should win, either way. How long Vrabel goes with the starters will only affect the margin of victory. Wait... did I say only? That matters to bettors.
Pick: NE -11.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: NEW ENGLAND 30, MIAMI 14
Commanders at Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Line: PHI -4.5 | Total: 38.5
It sounds like the Eagles will be resting their starters. Otherwise this spread might be double digits. It probably should still be as the Commanders will be rolling out dinosaur Josh Johnson at quarterback. I watched him play last week and ... woof! He was not ready to play, or maybe he just can't play. Either way, it looks like he is only hanging around the NFL to keep collecting a check. Nothing wrong with that.
Pick: PHIL -4.5
Total: UNDER
Final Score Prediction: PHILADELPHIA 19, WASHINGTON 9
Lions at Bears
Soldier Field
Line: CHI -3 | Total: 50.5
Chicago clinches the #2 seed in the NFC with a win. If that is not incentive enough, Chicago head coach, Ben Johnson, is going to want to pour salt in the wounds of his former boss. Dan Campbell's Lions won't be appearing in the playoffs in Year One without Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator. It may spell the beginning of the end for Campbell.
Pick: DET +3
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: CHICAGO 27, DETROIT 26
Chargers at Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High
Line: DEN -12.5 | Total: 37.5
As mentioned before, the Chargers will be starting 2021 third-overall draft pick Trey Lance against the vaunted Denver defense in Mile High. Patriots fans aren't happy about it, but it is Jim Harbaugh's prerogative. Denver locks up the #1 seed in the AFC if they take care of business.
Pick: LAC +12.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: DENVER 26, LA CHARGERS 16
Chiefs at Raiders
Allegiant Stadium
Line: KC -5.5 | Total: 36.5
Yuck! It still takes some getting used to saying the Chiefs are 6-10 going into their season finale. They will not be playing football in late January for the first time in over a decade. The Raiders are used to being home at this time of the year.
Will this be Travis Kelce's last game in the NFL? That will be the only reason to keep an eye on this one. It's a shame he may be catching his last passes in the NFL from Chris Oladokun, and not Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: LV +5.5
Total: UNDER
Final Score Prediction: LAS VEGAS 16, KANSAS CITY 13
Cardinals at Rams
SoFi Stadium
Line: LAR -8.5 | Total: 46.5
There is such a huge disparity in how good the NFC is compared to the AFC. The Rams were considered the best team in the NFL for most of the season, and they haven't done much to tarnish that image. Yet the best seed they are looking at in the NFC is a fifth-seed. It won't matter if it is Stafford or Garoppolo in this one. The Cardinals checked out a long time ago.
Pick: LAR -8.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: LA RAMS 35, ARIZONA 16
🏈 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Ravens at Steelers
Acrisure Stadium | 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)
Line: BAL -4.5 | Total: 40.5
And now we get to the final game of the regular season. Or is it the first game of the playoffs? It seems like the Ravens haven been hot in pursuit of the Steelers all season long. They had a chance to pass them a couple of weeks ago but lost in their first matchup against each other. Now they get one last chance. Winner goes to the playoffs, loser goes home.
Lamar Jackson says he will play. If he isn't close to 100%, will it matter if it is him or Ty Huntley? Just hand the ball off to Derrick Henry 36 times, like they did last week when Henry went off for 216 yards and 4 touchdowns.
D.K. Metcalf's suspension looms large in this one. Pittsburgh has no firepower on offense. Something tells me Aaron Rodgers finds a way, though, and he will be flipping off the media afterwards.
Pick: PITT +4.5
Total: OVER
Final Score Prediction: PITTSBURGH 23, BALTIMORE 20