Week 14 NFL Picks: Crunch Time Across the League
Week 14 rolls in with the playoff picture sharpening. Some teams are charging. Some are fading.
Bill Belichick used to say that the NFL season only truly began after Thanksgiving. Of course, his season is over now. UNC finished 4-8, by the way.
There are only a couple of good betting weeks left until those crappy, unpredictable last two weeks of the season are here. You know – when teams sit their veterans and stars either to rest for the playoffs, or to try and move up in the draft.
Last week continued my trend of treading water all season. Here were the results:
Last Week
- Straight Up: 10-6
- Against the Spread (ATS): 7-9
- Over/Under: 9-7
For the Season
- Straight Up: 120-69 (63.49%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 92-100 (47.92%)
- Over/Under: 90-100 (47.37%)
Let's dive into this week's games:
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) @ Detroit Lions (7-5)
Spread: DET -3 | Total: 54.5
The Detroit Lions are banged up unit right now. Four-fifths of their offensive line are either out or injured. The Cowboys have won three in a row, including a Thanksgiving Day victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Their playoff hopes will be better than Detroit's after this game.
Prediction: Dallas 34, Detroit 27. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.
Sunday, December 7, 2025 – Early Games
Seattle Seahawks (9-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
Spread: SEA -7 | Total: 44.5
The Seahawks defense is a special group, but there is something off with Sam Darnold and the offense that has me worried. The Seahawks are the only team in the NFL to run the ball on more than half their plays. At some point, Sam Darnold is going to need to win them a game. It won't be this week.
Prediction: Seattle 24, Atlanta 13. Take the SEAHAWKS and the UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) @ Buffalo Bills (8-4)
Spread: BUF -5.5 | Total: 52.5
Cincinnati has actually won the last two meetings against the Bills, including a 27-10 win in Buffalo in 2022 in the playoffs. The games between these two have been surprisingly very low scoring. The Bengals are not dead. The Bills might be.
Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Buffalo 22. Take the BENGALS and the UNDER.
Tennessee Titans (1-11) @ Cleveland Browns (3-9)
Spread: CLE -4.5 | Total: 33.5
I'm sorry if you are stuck watching this game. I can't get over how low the point total line is. I can't believe I am still going with the under.
Prediction: Cleveland 13, Tennessee 10. Take the TITANS and the UNDER.
Washington Commanders (3-9) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-8)
Spread: MIN -1.5 | Total: 41.5
There is a slim chance Jayden Daniels may be back for this game. J.J. McCarthy definitely will be. Marcus Mariota has been more than serviceable as a fill-in. McCarthy has been less than serviceable as a starter.
Prediction: Washington 20, Minnesota 17. Take the COMMANDERS and the UNDER.
Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-9)
Spread: MIA -2.5 | Total: 41.5
The Dolphins are playing much better as of late. the Jets have won only three games this year. On paper, this game looks easy. Pick the Dolphins, right? Not so fast. The temperature is suppose to be in the 30s in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday. The Dolphins haven't won a game since 2016 (0-14) when the temperature at game time is less than 40 degrees.
Prediction: Jets 19, Dolphins 17. Take the JETS and the UNDER.
New Orleans Saints (2-10) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Spread: TB -8.5 | Total: 42.5
The Buccaneers are getting healthy. Mike Evans is back practicing after breaking his collar bone in Week 7. The Saints are healthy, but it doesn't matter.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 13. Take the BUCCANEERS and the UNDER.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Spread: IND -1.5 | Total: 47.5
The Colts have lost their last ten games in Jacksonville. Their last win there was in 2014. That's a long time! The Colts will have to wait another year to snap the streak. After having the best record in the NFL earlier this year, if Indy loses, they are, literally, 50/50 to make the playoffs.
Prediction: Jacksonville 27, Indianapolis 24. Take the JAGUARS and the OVER.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Spread: BAL -6 | Total: 42.5
It is no surprise to anyone that we have arrived to this point. The Ravens spotted the Steelers a big lead in the AFC North, but this is the week the Ravens overtake Pittsburgh to regain supremacy in the division. Thanks for keeping the seat warm.
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 17. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.
Sunday, December 7, 2025 – Late Games
Denver Broncos (10-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
Spread: DEN -7.5 | Total: 40.5
Not much to say about this game. The Broncos have won nine in a row. The Raiders have lost six in a row. Both teams stay in their lane.
Prediction: Denver 26, Las Vegas 9. Take the BRONCOS and the UNDER.
Chicago Bears (9-3) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
Spread: GB -6.5 | Total: 44.5
The Bears shut up a lot of people, including myself, with an impressive victory last week in Philadelphia. It will be too tall a task for them to win a second road game against another upper echelon NFC team.
Prediction: Green Bay 26, Chicago 20. Take the BEARS and the OVER.
Los Angeles Rams (9-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
Spread: LAR -7.5 | Total: 48.5
I feel sorry for the Cardinals. The Rams will be looking to get rid of the bad taste in their mouth after their upset loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 28, Arizona 24. Take the CARDINALS and the OVER.
Sunday Night Football
Houston Texans (7-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Spread: KC -3.5 | Total: 41.5
There may not be a more dangerous team in the NFL right now – other than the New England Patriots – than the Houston Texans. They've lost five in a row to the Chiefs, though, including twice last year in Kansas City (27-19 in Week 16 and 23-14, a week later, in the division round of the playoffs). Do they get the monkey off their back this week and, in the process, put the final nail in the coffin for the Chiefs' playoff chances? It will come down to the closing seconds of the game.
Prediction: Houston 21, Kansas City 20. Take the TEXANS and the UNDER.
Monday, December 8, 2025 – Monday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Spread: PHI -3 | Total: 40.5
Justin Herbert fractured his left hand last Sunday. He had surgery on it on Monday. But he expects to play Monday night. Either way, the Eagles win.
Prediction: Philadelphia 26, Los Angeles Chargers 17. Take the EAGLES and the OVER