Week 13 NFL picks: Time to separate the contenders from the pretenders
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I am thankful for a successful week, for a change. But seriously, sometimes we need to step away and get a sense of perspective. Sports aren't everything. We have so many more things to be thankful for. But, damn, if my in-laws don't let me watch this exceptional lineup of Thanksgiving games, I might go ape shit.
Let's take a look at my results and then dive into a full slate of games this week (no byes).
Last Week
- Straight Up: 11-3
- Against the Spread (ATS): 7-6
- Over/Under: 9-5
For the Season
- Straight Up: 110-63 (63.22%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 85-91 (48.01%)
- Over/Under: 81-93 (46.55%)
Thursday, Nov 27
Packers @ Lions — Spread: Lions −2.5; O/U: 48.5
The Packers and Lions were expected to be Super Bowl contenders this year, but neither team is even leading their division. They both find themselves looking up at the Chicago Bears in the NFC North.
The Lions eked out a win against the Giants as the Giants again blew a second half lead. It took a 59-yard field goal by kicker Jake Bates to send the game to overtime. Jahmyr Gibbs took it from there – breaking a 69-yard touchdown run on the first play of overtime. Gibbs finished with 219 yards rushing on only 15 carries. For good measure, he had 11 receptions for 45 yards. Pffff... that is barely four yards per reception.
Prediction: Detroit 28, Green Bay 23. Take the LIONS and the OVER.
Chiefs @ Cowboys — Spread: Chiefs −3; O/U: 52.5
The Cowboys saved their playoff hopes by capping off a 21-0 comeback with a 24-21 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The path to the playoffs doesn't get any easier for the Cowboys.
Now they take on the Super Bowl champions from the previous two seasons. The Chiefs saved their playoff hopes, themselves, with a come-from-behind win against the Indianapolis Colts, 23-20. The Chiefs were down 20-9 in the fourth quarter in that one.
The Cowboys are 3-1-1 at home. The Chiefs are 1-4 on the road.
Prediction: Kansas City 27, Dallas 24. Take the COWBOYS and the UNDER.
Bengals @ Ravens — Spread: Ravens −7; O/U: 52.5
Stop me if I sound like a broken record, but the Ravens saved their season last week with a surprisingly close, 23-10, victory at home over the New York Jets. Lamar Jackson hasn't looked the same after returning from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss three games. The Ravens, however, smell blood in the water with the Pittsburgh Steelers floundering away their once formidable lead in the AFC North. Both teams are now 6-5.
Joe Burrow was putting in full practices last week leading up to the New England Patriots game, but the Bengals (3-8) decided the day before the game that he wouldn't be ready. It might be too late now.
Prediction: Baltimore 28, Cincinnati 27. Take the BENGALS and the OVER.
Friday, Nov 28
Bears @ Eagles — Spread: Eagles −7; O/U: 44.5
Yes, we have Friday football this week, as well. This is a football fan's dream week. NFL football almost every day. The Bears continue to live right. They won another close one against the Pittsburgh Steelers despite Caleb Williams completing less than 60% of his passes for the seventh time in his last eight games.
The Eagles will be looking to bounce back from their choke job against the Cowboys. On the bright side, the Eagles got A.J. Brown involved. He had only his third 100-yard receiving game of the year, and only the fourth game he has had over 50 yards receiving. That's amazing, and a waste.
Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Chicago 17. Take the BEARS and the UNDER.
Sunday, Nov 30
Texans @ Colts — Spread: Colts −4.5; O/U: 44.5
I am starting to change my tune about the Texans. I thought they were a very flawed team earlier in the season without Joe Mixon in the backfield. But I am intrigued by the development of rookie Woody Marks. Marks now has double-digit carries in Houston's last six games. The results have been mixed, but he has shown flashes.
I predicted a couple of weeks ago that Daniel Jones and the Colts would turn into a pumpkin in the second half of the season. They have now lost two out of three, and should have lost to Atlanta in Germany.
Prediction: Houston 23, Indianapolis 21. Take the TEXANS and the UNDER.
49ers @ Browns — Spread: 49ers −4.5; O/U: 37.5
That was not pretty the way Brock Purdy looked in the first half Monday night against the Panthers. I thought there was a chance he would get benched for Mac Jones after throwing three interceptions in the first half. The home crowd had had enough. He might be happy to be playing on the road this week. Christian McCaffrey can not continue this heavy of a workload. Mike Shanahan is just tempting fate letting him touch the ball over thirty times per game.
Prediction: San Francisco 20, Cleveland 17. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.
Saints @ Dolphins — Spread: Dolphins −6; O/U: 42.5
Don't look now, but the Dolphins have won three out of their last four. And they are coming off a bye. It may be just enough to have saved Mike McDaniel's job... for this year.
Prediction: Miami 26, New Orleans 16. Take the DOLPHINS and the UNDER.
Jaguars @ Titans — Spread: Jaguars −6.5; O/U: 41.5
The Jaguars, very easily, could be riding a four-game winning streak right now if they didn't suffer a fourth quarter collapse to the Houston Texans in Week 10. Rookie head coach Liam Coen has the team at 7-4 and squarely in the playoff hunt. This week against the Titans is the kind of game they, simply, cannot afford to lose. The Titans have won only one game all year, but they have shown a little bit of fight in them the last few weeks. They haven't lost by more than a touchdown the last three weeks against some pretty tough teams – the Chargers, Texans, and Seahawks.
Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 16. Take the TITANS and the UNDER.
Falcons @ Jets — Spread: Falcons −2.5; O/U: 39.5
The Jets showed a little fight last week with new starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor at the helm. They had a 7-3 lead at halftime against the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore, but then they got outscored 20-3 in the second half. If both these teams decide to get the ball in their running backs' hands more, this could be an entertaining game. The 36-year-old Taylor seems more willing to check down to Breece Hall (4 receptions, 72 yards last week) than his predecessor. The way Bijan Robinson is under-utilized by Atlanta's Raheem Morris is criminal... and fireable.
Prediction: New York Jets 17, Atlanta 16. Take the JETS and the UNDER.
Rams @ Panthers — Spread: Rams −10.5; O/U: 45.5
I wrote last week about Bryce Young throwing for 448 yards against one of the top-ranked pass defenses in the Falcons. I mentioned how Jacoby Brissett set a completion record with 47 while throwing for 452 yards against the 49ers. With Carolina going up against the 49ers on Monday night, I wrote it would make logical sense that Young would throw for 400-plus yards against a lousy 49ers' secondary, which means he will probably throw for 175 yards. Well, he threw for 169.
Carolina got crushed by San Francisco, 20-9, even with Purdy throwing three interceptions. Matthew Stafford won't throw three interceptions.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 34, Carolina 17. Take the RAMS and the OVER.
Vikings @ Seahawks — Spread: Seahawks −10.5; O/U: 41.5
I am not very happy with the Seahawks not covering last week because of a Titans' touchdown with 43 seconds left in the game to make the final score, 30-24. The spread was 11.5. I will go to the well again. Sam Darnold will be looking to run it up against the team that dumped him last offseason in favor of J.J. McCarthy. As KGB in the poker movie Rounders would say, "Baaaad judgement."
Prediction: Seattle 26, Minnesota 16. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.
Raiders @ Chargers — Spread: Chargers −9.5; O/U: 41.5
The Chargers needed the bye week last week in the worst way. They get sort of another bye week this week against the Raiders.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 29, Las Vegas 16. Take the CHARGERS and the OVER.
Bills @ Steelers — Spread: Bills −3.5; O/U: 47.5
Buffalo had better get their act together. They have lost four out of their last six games, including a 23-19 defeat last week to the Davis Mills-led Houston Texans, 23-19. The Steelers' 32nd-ranked pass defense may just be the elixir for Josh Allen and their struggling pass offense.
Prediction: Buffalo 32, Pittsburgh 24. Take the BILLS and the OVER.
Broncos @ Commanders — Spread: Broncos −6.5; O/U: 43.5
Denver is in a competition with the New England Patriots for supremacy in the AFC. They have won eight in a row. It hasn't been pretty, but they keep getting it done. They have won games during the streak by scores of 13-11, 18-15, and 10-7.
The Commanders are on the other end of the spectrum having lost six in a row since they lost Jayden Daniels for the season. Both teams are coming off byes.
Prediction: Denver 23, Washington 14. Take the BRONCOS and the UNDER.
Monday, Dec 1
Giants @ Patriots — Spread: Patriots −7.5; O/U: 46.5
For Patriots fans, just seeing "Patriots vs NY Giants" gives them PTSD. Even when the Patriots were crushing it over the first two decades of this century, the Giants were their kryptonite.
The Patriots have a much-needed bye week after this game.
They may have dodged major bullets with injuries to the left side of their offensive line. Rookies Jared Wilson and Will Campbell helped solidify a line that was one of the worst last year in the NFL. They have been major reasons Drake Maye has been able to make a huge second-year leap and become a leading contender for MVP. Both rookies looked – from their reactions – like they may have sustained season-ending injuries against the Bengals last week.
Fortunately, Wilson (ankle) looks it might be a week-to-week injury while Campbell (MCL, not ACL knee injury) may be able to come back for the playoffs.
I just have a bad feeling about this one. The Patriots are due for a slip up. The Giants have been competitive, but haven't been able to finish. I think they get it done this week.
Prediction: New York Giants 26, New England 23. Take the GIANTS and the OVER.