Week 12 NFL Picks: It is Getting Late Early for Cowboys, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bucs

As Yogi Berra once said, "It getting late early out there." Oh, how I miss that guy. For you youngins out there, if you are not familiar with Yogi Berra and his famous quirky sayings, click here.

But we are going into Week 12 which means Week 18 isn't too far away and I have some major ground to make up. Looking back, only Week 2 was a very good week for me (11-5) against the spread. Otherwise, with the exception of two horrendous weeks lately, I've hovered around .500. If there is something I hate, it is being average.

Here are my updated results:

Last Week

• Straight Up: 8-6
• Against the Spread (ATS):  7-7
• Over/Under: 6-8

For the Season

• Straight Up: 99-60-1 (61.88%)
• Against the Spread (ATS): 78-85 (47.86%)
• Over/Under: 72-88 (45%)

Let's try to have a Josh Allen-type week (6 TDs!) this week:

Thursday

Bills @ Texans — Spread: Bills −6 | O/U: 43.5

Speaking of Josh Allen, we lead off with the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night against the Houston Texans. The Texans will be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud for a third straight game due to a concussion. Houston has actually won three out of their last four meetings against the Bills, including a 23-20 win at home just last season. Houston had to count on a last minute field goal to beat the lowly Titans last week, 16-13, while Buffalo had an impressive victory at home against Tampa, 44-32.

Houston has the #1 scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 16.3 points per game. This game may be not as easy as it may seem based on last week's results.

Prediction: Buffalo 20, Houston 16. Take the TEXANS and the UNDER.

Sunday — Early Window

Patriots @ Bengals — Spread: Patriots −7 | O/U: 49.5

If the Patriots could beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati last year with Jerod Mayo as head coach, Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and Joe Burrow as the Bengals' starting quarterback, they shouldn't have a problem beating them this year with Mike Vrabel as head coach, Drake Maye at quarterback, and Joe Flacco as Cincy's starting quarterback, and no Ja'Marr Chase, either. Am I right? But that's why they play the games. And that is why I am getting crushed this year!

Prediction: Patriots 37, Bengals 20. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.

Colts @ Chiefs — Spread: Chiefs −3.5 | O/U: 49.5

Last week there were three great matchups that could have been considered "Games of the Week." This week there is only one – this one. Indianapolis was fortunate to come out of Germany with a victory last week over the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs have lost two in a row for the second time this year. They sit at 5-5 and are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Daniel Jones is showing signs that the clock may be approaching midnight on his dream season.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Colts 20. Take the COLTS and the UNDER.

Vikings @ Packers — Spread: Packers −6 | O/U: 41.5

But, Tony, this could be a Game of the Week, right?

Wrong!

J.J. McCarthy is awful right now. He has thrown an interception in all five games he has played, and he has thrown two interceptions in three of them! Not even the quarterback whisperer, Kevin O'Connell, has been able to save him. And now McCarthy is going up against Micah Parsons and the Packers 10th-ranked passing defense.

The vaunted Packers offense isn't doing much better. They have been a disappointment this year and now it looks like they will be without starting running back Josh Jacobs.

Both games were decided by two points last year, with Minnesota winning both. But Minnesota had Sam Darnold last year. For all those reasons, I pick...

Prediction: Vikings 20, Packers 19. Take the VIKINGS and the UNDER.

Steelers @ Bears — Spread: Bears −2.5 | O/U: 45.5

As an indication of how wacky this season has been, we now turn to a matchup of the 1st-place Pittsburgh Steelers against the 1st-place Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears have turned into the "Cardiac Kids" of the NFL this year. The Bears have tied an NFL record with five victories when trailing in the final two minutes of a game. They beat the Vikings last week, 19-17, on a field goal as time expired.

A lot of attention has been on Aaron Rodgers and if he might be out this week due to a fracture in his left (non-throwing) wrist. But, equally as worrisome is that they may also be without their starting running back, Jaylen Warren, with an ankle injury. He hasn't practiced all week, but Mike Tomlin is hopeful Warren will play.

Prediction: Bears 32, Steelers 20. Take the BEARS and the OVER.

Jets @ Ravens — Spread: Ravens −13.5 | O/U: 44.5

Here we go again with the Lamar Jackson injury watch. He missed practice on Wednesday. This time it was because of ankle soreness, not the hamstring issue that kept him out of three games. The Ravens shouldn't even need Jackson for this one.

Predication: Ravens 29, Jets 20. Take the JETS and the OVER.

Giants @ Lions — Spread: Lions −10 | O/U: 50.5

The Lions have lost two out of three, and three out of five games. The Giants have lost their last five games in a row, and a head coach along the way. They may be getting their quarterback, Jaxson Dart, back though after missing a game due to a concussion.

Jared Goff, I'm sure, is looking forward to returning to his friendly indoor home confines after struggling playing outdoors the last two weeks. Especially last week in Philadelphia where he only completed 14 of 37 passes. Goff is used to completing over 70% of his passes. This is the definition of a "get-right" game for the Lions (unless Dan Campbell decides to go for it on every fourth down – which he might).

Prediction: Lions 36, Giants 24. Take the LIONS and the OVER.

Seahawks @ Titans — Spread: Seahawks −13.5 | O/U: 40.5

The Seahawks let me down against the Rams last week. They were the foundation of a lot of my parlays. I felt that confident they would beat the overrated Rams. I was wr-wr-wr-wrong. Who knew Sam Darnold would throw not one, not two, not three, but four interceptions? But even still, the Seahawks only lost by two to the Rams on the road. That is encouraging. Seattle might hit the over on total points on their own.

Prediction: Seahawks 33, Titans 10. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.

Jaguars @ Cardinals — Spread: Jaguars −3 | O/U: 47.5

Credit to Liam Coen. I wrote last week that the crushing, 36-29, defeat two weeks ago when the Jaguars gave up 26 unanswered points to the Texans in the 4th quarter was going to send the Jaguars' season spiraling down. Coen managed to rally his team into playing their best game of the season, beating the Chargers, handily, 35-6. It was the biggest surprise of the week for me (and a second foundation leg of a lot of my parlays – not a good week for me, as you can imagine).

Jacoby Brissett broke a record held by Drew Bledsoe (1994) and Jared Goff (2019) by throwing 47 completions. Let me say that again – Jacoby Brissett broke an NFL record for completions in a game by completing 47 passes in a game. And that record will be on the books for a long, long time. Jacoby Brissett!

Prediction: Jaguars 26, Cardinals 24. Take the CARDINALS and the OVER.

Browns @ Raiders — Spread: Raiders −4 | O/U: 36.5

Best thing I can say about this game is that it is looking like the first NFL start for rookie Shedeur Sanders. Sanders started the season as the fourth-string quarterback for the Browns, yet here we are. Sanders was "that guy" on draft day who was expected to go in the first round but cameras stayed on him as he slipped all the way down to the fifth round. You couldn't help but feel bad for him, even if he was seen wearing a $250,000 watch.

The Raiders are just bad. It is sad to watch two legendary head coaches like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll tarnish their legacies like this.

Prediction: Browns 17, Raiders 16. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.

Falcons @ Saints — Spread: Saints −1.5 | O/U: 39.5

Safe to say Raheem Morris may be coaching his last few games as head coach of the Falcons, and deservedly so. The Falcons are 3-7 and have lost their last five in a row. It is criminal how little Bijan Robinson is given the ball. The two games this season he was handed the ball 19 or more times, he had 143 and 170 yards rushing. So why does he have five games when he was given the ball 14 times or less?

Now Michael Penix is done for the season (who couldn't have seen that coming?) and the Falcons have to unveil their 37-year-old statue Kirk Cousins.

Rookie Tyler Shough is quietly putting together some good games for the Saints. Now he gets a chance to play at home against a defense that gave up 448 yards passing to Bryce Young.

Prediction: Saints 19, Falcons 16. Take the SAINTS and the UNDER.

Buccaneers @ Rams — Spread: Rams −7 | O/U: 49.5

Is it just me or does it seem like Tampa Bay is playing a tough team every week? Their schedule has been brutal. They have now lost three out of four and they take on, probably, the best team in the NFL on the road this week. It just seems like Mayfield is never going to get his weapons back. Even if he could just get Bucky Irving back, that would be something.

Prediction: Rams 29, Buccaneers 22. Take the RAMS and the OVER.

Eagles @ Cowboys — Spread: Eagles −3.5 | O/U: 47.5

I think the Cowboys, at home, can play with any team. And they will have to win against the Eagles if they hope to have any chance of making the playoffs. The Cowboys come into the game with a 4-5-1 record. There has been an incredible 66.8 average points scored per game at AT&T Stadium – home of the Cowboys – this season. The Cowboys defense has been improved with the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Eagles 26. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.

Monday Night Football

Panthers @ 49ers — Spread: 49ers −7 | O/U: 48.5

The 49ers got Brock Purdy back last week, but their defense didn't look "purdy" against Jacoby Brissett, giving up 47 completions and 452 yards passing. And now they go up against Bryce Young who passed for 448 yards last week against a solid Falcons' pass defense. Logic would dictate that Young would throw for 400-plus yards against the 49ers, right?

Yeah, right, he'll probably pass for his typical 175 yards. Bet the under!! Logic has no place in sports betting. (Do I sound bitter? Naaaah)

Prediction: San Francisco 29, Carolina 26. Take the PANTHERS and the OVER.