Week 11 NFL Picks: Patriots unveil new unis, some great late matchups
The crazy season continues. Trust me – it's the season, not me. I feel the need to defend myself, or maybe I just need to give myself a little pep talk. Last year I picked winners on the money line at a nearly 70% clip, 55% against the spread, and 52% on the over/unders. As you can see below, I am a little under those numbers.
Last Week
- Straight Up: 8-6
- Against the Spread (ATS): 9-5
- Over/Under: 4-10
For the Season
- Straight Up: 91-54-1 (62.32%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 71-77 (47.98%)
- Over/Under: 66-80 (45.21%)
But there's still time. Only two teams are on a bye this week, so we have 15 games to get this ship pointed in the right direction. I'm not going to let this season turn into the "Poop Cruise."
Thursday
Jets @ Patriots — Spread: Patriots –13.5, O/U: 42.5
Thursday nights have seen some weird games this season. The Dolphins kept it close against Buffalo in Buffalo. The Giants crushed the Eagles, 34-17. A beat-up 49ers team defeated the Rams in LA. Ja'Marr Chase had 16 receptions on 23 targets to lead Cincinnati over the Steelers. And the Broncos barely beat the Raiders, 10-7, last week.
Could the Jets, possibly, keep it close against the resurgent Patriots or maybe even {gasp} win? I would ordinarily laugh at the notion, but Thursdays have been... weird.
Outside of Breece Hall catching a 42-yard screen pass for a TD last week, the second-leading receiver for the Jets had a grand total of ... 4 yards receiving. That's right. Justin Field completed only 6 of 11 passes for 54 yards (42 of them on that one Breece Hall dump off pass) and the Jets still managed to beat the Browns, 27-20.
That won't get it done against a Patriots' team that showed they are not just a product of a weak schedule by, soundly, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 28-23, in Tampa. The Patriots offense is proving to be multi-dimensional and rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams showed off their big play capabilities – something the Patriots haven't had since Randy Moss – with three dynamic, long TD plays. And now the Jets' defense will be without their two best players, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, who they traded away before the trade deadline.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Jets 10. Take the PATRIOTS and the UNDER.
Sunday
Commanders @ Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins –2.5
O/U: 47.5
I wrote last week that the Dolphins are one of those Jekyll and Hyde teams this year and they showed it last week by annihilating the Buffalo Bills, 30-13. The Commanders, without Jayden Daniels for the rest of the season, got crushed by the Detroit Lions, 44-22. So that, most likely, means the Commanders roll in this one.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Commanders 19. Take the DOLPHINS and the UNDER.
Texans @ Titans — Spread: Texans –6.5
O/U: 37.5
The Texans outscored Jacksonville, 26-0, in the fourth quarter last week to win, 36-29. So much for the "under" in that game. Who could have seen 65 total points coming in that game? Davis Mills put up some gaudy numbers – 27/45, 292 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. The Texans can afford to have C.J. Stroud take another week off.
Prediction: Texans 31, Titans 10. Take the TEXANS and the OVER.
Bears @ Vikings — Spread: Vikings –3.5
O/U: 48.5
You gotta hand it to the Bears. They seem to make every game entertaining. This one this week should be no exception.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 24. Take the BEARS and the OVER.
Buccaneers @ Bills — Spread: Bills –5.5, O/U: 48.5
Can you believe one of these two team will see their record fall to 6-4 after this game? Both teams were viewed as Super Bowl contenders only a few weeks ago (before the Patriots knocked off both of them).
Prediction: Bills 23, Buccaneers 20. Take TAMPA and the UNDER.
Bengals @ Steelers — Spread: Steelers –5.5, O/U: 48.5
Maybe the Steelers will figure out a way to cover Ja'Marr Chase this time. Chase had 16 receptions for 161 yards while being targeted by Joe Flacco an incredible 23 times only a month ago in a win against these same Steelers. Flacco finished with 342 yards and 3 TDs in that game. The Steelers (5-4) have lost three of four and are looking over their shoulders at a healthy Baltimore Ravens team (4-5) that has won three in a row after starting the season 1-5.
Joe Burrow has opened his 21-day practice window by resuming light workouts with his receivers. It might be too little, too late for the Bengals (3-6).
Prediction: Bengals 33, Steelers 31. Take the BENGALS and the OVER.
Packers @ Giants — Spread: Packers –6.5, O/U: 42.5
This game right here is the definition of a "get right" game. The Packers have scored just 20 points in their last two games – both losses. There are rumblings of head coach Matt LaFleur being on the hot seat. The Giants will be starting Jameis Winston in place of a concussed Jaxson Dart. I love having my automatic "Jameis Winston 2+ INT" bet back. The Packers better get right or they may be right out of the playoff picture.
Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 16. Take the PACKERS and the OVER.
Chargers @ Jaguars — Spread: Chargers –2.5 O/U: 43.5
I'm afraid Liam Coen's first year as head coach is about to spiral out of control. The season started promising (4-1 start), but the Jags have now lost three out of four. I don't see how they rebound after blowing a lead against their divisional foe, Texans, minus their starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud. You just can't let that happen. It doesn't seem like Coen and Trevor Lawrence are a good fit. Lawrence might not be a good fit for any head coach.
Prediction: Chargers 26, Jaguars 24. Take the JAGUARS and the OVER.
Panthers @ Falcons — Spread: Falcons –3.5, O/U: 41.5
Oh, Atlanta. And oh, Carolina. The Falcons took a 25-22 lead with under two minutes to go against the Colts in Germany and couldn't hold on. Carolina couldn't build off the momentum of a huge win in Green Bay as they lost at home to the lowly New Orleans Saints. You call it ... {flips coin}
Prediction: Panthers 20, Falcons 19. Take the PANTHERS and the UNDER.
Seahawks @ Rams — Spread: Rams –3.5
O/U: 48.5
This is the game of the week for me. I think the Seahawks may be the best team in the NFC. There, I said it. After they beat the Rams this week, a lot more people will start agreeing with me.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Rams 23. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.
49ers @ Cardinals — Spread: 49ers –2.5, O/U: 47.5
Ah, now that is the Jacoby Brissett I know. Brissett lost not one, but two fumbles returned for touchdowns last week. The 49ers continue to hang around the playoff race with Brock Purdy out.
Prediction: San Francisco 34, Cardinals 16. Take SAN FRANCISCO and the OVER.
Chiefs @ Broncos — Spread: Chiefs –3.5, O/U: 44.5
If the Seahawks vs Rams is the game of the week for me, this one is 1-C (you'll see why below). The Broncos are 8-2 and in first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs (5-4) are getting healthy at the right time and saying, "Not so fast." The Chiefs aren't about ready to cede the division title to someone else for the first time in almost ten years without a fight.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Broncos 19. Take the CHIEFS and the UNDER.
Ravens @ Browns — Spread: Ravens –7.5, O/U: 39.5
No, this isn't the 1-B game I hinted at in the last preview.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 10. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.
Lions @ Eagles — Spread: Eagles –2.5, O/U: 46.5
Now we come to the 1-B game of the week. It's hard to believe, but these two teams last met in 2021 and the Eagles won that game in Detroit, 44-6. But that game means nothing (so why did you mention it, Tony?).
Prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 24. Take the EAGLES and the OVER.
Monday
Cowboys @ Raiders — Spread: Cowboys –3.5, O/U: 49.5
I hate it when the Cowboys are on the road. It is so hard to pick their games. They are such two different teams at home and on the road. They average 35 points per game at home and only 24 on the road. Dak Prescott throws for 50 fewer passing yards per game on the road.
I have to go with my gut on this one. There is no other explanation for my pick. Maybe Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers go off in this one.
Prediction: Raiders 30, Cowboys 27. Take the RAIDERS and the OVER.