Week 10 NFL Picks: MVP Battle in Tampa
That's two tough weeks in a row for me – probably the worst back-to-back weeks since I started publishing these picks. I was 3-10 against the spread. Like the song goes – "Mama said there would be days like this." She didn't, however, tell me there would be back-to-back weeks like that.
But such is the betting life. It just means it is time to buckle down and cross all the t's and dot all the i's.
Let's take one last look back before we bury this dumpster fire:
Last Week
- Straight Up: 7-6
- Against the Spread (ATS): 3-10
- Over/Under: 5-8
For the Season
- Straight Up: 83-48-1 (62.88%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 62-72 (46.27%)
- Over/Under: 62-70 (46.97%)
Alright, let's wipe off the dirt and get back on that horse:
Thursday, November 6
Raiders @ Broncos — Spread: DEN –9.5 | O/U 42.5
The Broncos just keep, quietly, rolling along. They are 7-2 and riding a six-game winning streak. The Raiders just traded away one of their best players – Jakobi Meyers.
Prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 20. Take the RAIDERS and the OVER.
Sunday, November 9
Early Games
Falcons @ Colts — Spread: IND –6.5 | O/U 48.5
I missed these early morning Sunday games. This time we are going to Germany where I still have PTSD of Mac Jones throwing a horrendous interception when all he had to do was lob the ball over a defender's head for an easy touchdown to seal a comeback win for the Patriots against the Colts. Instead it was an easy interception.
Well, the Colts are back in Germany and they brought a much better team. Good luck trying to guess what Falcons' team is going to show up. Maybe the coaching staff will realize before the end of the season it might be best to give Bijan Robinson the ball more often. I mean, they did draft him 8th OVERALL in 2023. They also drafted Michael Penix Jr. 8th overall last year.
I am going to close my eyes and believe the good Falcons will show up in Germany. I think the Colts are going to start fading here in the second half of the season.
Prediction: Falcons 23, Colts 20. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER.
Giants @ Bears — Spread: CHI –3.5 | O/U 47.5
As proof of how wacky this season is: the Colts are 7-2, the Panthers are 5-4, and the Jaguars and Bears are 5-3. What, in the name of Mark Brunell and Jim McMahon, is going on here?
The Giants and Jaxson Dart have been a good story, but they still are not producing any wins and that won't change when they visit the Win-dy City. (See what I did there?)
Prediction: Bears 30, Giants 20. Take da BEARS and the OVER.
Bills @ Dolphins — Spread: BUF –9.5 | O/U 50.5
The Dolphins epitomize my last two weeks. They looked incredible against the Falcons two weeks ago and then scored only 6 points against the Ravens last Thursday night. I mean, what can you do? Your guess is as good as mine as to which Dolphins' team is going to show up for this one. They played Buffalo tough earlier this year, but Josh Allen owns them. All I know about Miami is that De'Von Achane will score a touchdown and have over 100 yards rushing and receiving.
Prediction: Bills 33, Dolphins 20. Take the BILLS and the OVER.
Ravens @ Vikings — Spread: BAL –4.5 | O/U 48.5
Yeah, so Baltimore looked great against the Dolphins. Lamar is back and he didn't miss a beat – throwing for not one, not two, not three, but FOUR touchdowns in his return from a hamstring injury.
I'm sure I was not alone last week in thinking the Lions being a 9.5 point favorite last week against the Vikings with JJ McCarthy coming back wasn't nearly enough. JJ McCarthy had different ideas. They pulled off the upset, 27-24, in Detroit. He only completed 14 passes. That won't be enough if Lamar can stay healthy.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Vikings 23. Take the RAVENS and the OVER.
Browns @ Jets — Spread: CLE –2.5 | O/U 38.5
Don't look. Just look away. Under ideal conditions, this game would be ugly. Throw in some rain and we are talking Medusa-ugly. Look her up (but don't look at her).
Prediction: Browns 14, Jets 13. Take the JETS and the UNDER.
Patriots @ Buccaneers — Spread: TB –2.5 | O/U 48.5
Oh – I forgot to mention the Patriots in that earlier "What the hell is going on this season" list. The Patriots are in first place in the AFC East with a 7-2 record. That is one win shy of their total wins for the last two seasons combined.
This will be a battle of the two top MVP candidates at this point of the season, in my eyes. Drake Maye vs. Baker Mayfield. This will be like a shootout at the OK Corral with both gunmen blindfolded and one hand tied behind their backs. Their names even sound like cowboys from those old Western films.
Maye's offense will be without Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte. Mayfield's offense will be without Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin.
Remember when the Patriots were courting Godwin hardcore before signing Stefon Diggs. Thank God-win we got Diggs. I expect big games from Diggs and Mac Hollins. Patriots go up 10 in the second half and have to hold off a wild Baker Mayfield comeback at the end.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Buccaneers 25. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.
Saints @ Panthers — Spread: CAR –5.5 | O/U 39.5
We are in Week 10 and the Panthers are 5-4 and in the playoff hunt. And they are favored by 5.5 points to beat somebody, anybody. And Bryce Young is still their quarterback. And Cowboys' castoff Rico Dowdle – who went undrafted in 2020 – is their feature back, stealing the starting job away from incumbent Chuba Hubbard (a 4th round pick in 2021) who rushed for 10 touchdowns and almost 1200 yards a year ago.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Saints 20. Take the SAINTS and the OVER.
Jaguars @ Texans — Spread: HOU –1.5 | O/U 38.5
The Jaguars are back after a bye week. But they are not healthier. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence lost his best buddy from those annoying Adidas (free plug – you're welcome) commercials when Travis Hunter suffered a freak knee injury during practice a couple of weeks ago which landed him on IR. Now, this week he will be without his jilted best friend from last year – Brian Thomas Jr. – with a bum ankle. The Jaguars were so thin at wide receiver that they traded a 4th- and 6th-round pick in 2026 for, possibly, only nine games of Jakobi Meyers (a free agent at the end of the 2025 season).
The Texans will be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud. Davis Mills – who Bill Belichick was rumored to prefer over Mac Jones in the 2021 draft – draws the start against the Jags.
Prediction: Jaguars 19, Texans 17. Take the JAGUARS and the UNDER.
Late Games
Cardinals @ Seahawks — Spread: SEA –6.5 | O/U 44.5
Talking about stealing jobs. Another "Jakobi" – this one spelt differently – stole a starting job away from an incumbent while the incumbent was sidelined with an injury. Jacoby Brissett is the new QB1 in Arizona. Kyler Murray has been moved to IR with a "nagging" foot injury that he sustained in Week 5. Brissett looked good against Dallas last week, but everyone looks good against Dallas.
It is time we start looking at Seattle as serious Super Bowl contenders. And now they added a deep threat to complement Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Rashid Shaheed gives Sam Darnold a deep threat to open up the underneath for JSN and Kupp.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Arizona 20. Take the CARDINALS and the UNDER.
Rams @ 49ers — Spread: LAR –4.5 | O/U 49.5
I watch all these YouTube videos of people making football picks and I hear "the Rams might be the best team in the NFL" a lot. Maybe I expect too much, but I don't see it. Maybe I should. They've outscored opponents, 66-20, in the last three games.
Brock Purdy must have the same doctor as Kyler Murray because it never seems like he is returning. Mac Jones gets the nod again this week.
Prediction: Rams 27, San Francisco 20. Take the RAMS and the UNDER.
Lions @ Commanders — Spread: DET –9.5 | O/U 48.5
The Lions have been a disappointment to me this year. The Commanders lost their franchise QB, Jayden Daniels, to a horrific elbow injury. I hope Washington fans enjoyed last season. It may be a while before winning consistently returns to the Trump Dome. Uggh.
Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 17. Take the LIONS and the OVER.
Sunday Night Football
Steelers @ Chargers — Spread: LAC –2.5 | O/U 44.5
The Chargers are a different team without Joe Alt. And now his season is done so the Chargers better learn to play without him. The Steelers are another one of those Jekyll and Hyde teams.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Chargers 20. Take the STEELERS and the UNDER.
Monday, November 10
Eagles @ Packers — Spread: GB –2.5 | O/U 44.5
The Packers lost emerging star tight end Tucker Kraft for the season with a torn ACL. The Packers don't have that many offensive weapons to begin with. The Eagles are getting healthier.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Packers 19. Take the EAGLES and the UNDER.