Super Bowl LX Preview: Predictions, Prop Bets, and Keys to the Game

Warrrrriors… come out to play.

It always amazes me what multi-million dollar athletes dig up for a battle cry that rallies a team. Mack Hollins showed up at the AFC Championship in typical fashion. You've all seen and heard the clip by now.

But I'll describe it anyway.

Hollins jammed three fingers of one hand into glass bottles. As he was walking past the assembled media, he'd clink the glass bottles like he had Edward Scissorhands fingers.

Every couple of seconds he'd ham it up and chant, "Warrrrrrr-iors, come out to playyyyyy!"

Huh? What the hell is he saying?

Come to find out the quote is from a movie. If Hollins were your partner for a family game night, no one would bat an eyelash if you had no idea what he was trying to get at.

The line comes from a 1979 movie called The Warriors. A google search reveals that it is a "cult classic" about two rival street gangs in New York City. I've never heard of it, but I guess that's why it is called a "cult" film.

The line was uttered by an actor named David Patrick Kelly – who is still alive and well at age 75, by the way. I've never heard of him, either.

Apparently, the line was not in the original script and Kelly improvised and ad-libbed the line when it came time to do the scene.

Uh, Tony, I clicked on your article to get a review of the Big Game, not a movie review. I have Rotten Tomatoes for that. Who do you think you are – Siskel or Ebert?

For the record, I would think I am Siskel and no way Ebert. Ebert, may he rest in peace, was an ornery Belichickian jerk.

After their Wildcard Game victory over the Chargers, the quote that appeared to galvanize the team was Vrabel saying all week, "The big dawgs come out in January."

"We All We Got. We All We Need," has been going around since early in the season when people were skeptical of the Patriots hot start and easy schedule.

Will there something new unveiled this week? You can count on Mack Hollins doing something. Does Vrabel have a motivational quote that will be apropos for February? Something about groundhogs maybe?

OK, let's get to the actual game and the play on the field – but, again, I warn you, don't underestimate these motivational ploys in building team unity. United we stand, divided we fall. Words to live by.

Will Sam Darnold Turn Into Scrooge Seeing Ghosts Again?

Last week, I picked the Patriots to beat the Broncos, but I believed the Rams would beat Seattle.

I had, actually, picked Seattle to beat the Rams in both their regular season matchups. But there was just something about the playoffs and Sam Darnold. I couldn't see picking Darnold over Stafford.

But Darnold played great in that game– nothing like last year's playoff loss to the Rams when he got sacked nine times. He was also a pedestrian 25/40 for 245 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in that game last year. The injury-depleted 49ers were no match for Seattle. Darnold wasn't tested as he only needed to throw 17 passes – completing 12.

It was part of the reason Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Vikings had no problem seeing him go. They evaluated his ceiling as "He Can Get You To The Playoffs, But That's It."

This year, on February 8, 2026, Darnold will be playing in the Super Bowl and the Vikings' front office will be watching him on TV.

Darnold is 0-4 in his career against New England, including a 33-0 loss while playing for the Jets in 2019. That was the game he was mic'd up and told his coaches on the sidelines, "I'm seeing ghosts."

Darnold threw four interceptions in that game. For his career against the Patriots, he has completed only 52% of his passes with one touchdown, but nine interceptions.

The Seahawks ran the ball on 51.3% of snaps this year, trailing only the Baltimore Ravens. Their defense is the best in the NFL.

It's a pretty simple formula for Seattle – run the ball down the opponent's throats, don't make mistakes in the passing game, and let the defense (and special teams - Rashid Shaheed had 4 TD returns on special teams and is a sneaky Super Bowl MVP pick) take career of the rest.

Seattle doesn't ask much of Darnold and there is a big reason why. In 2024, Darnold committed 16 turnovers (12 INT, 8 fumbles, 4 fumbles lost).

In 2025, he was even worse, leading the league with 20 turnovers (14 INT, 11 fumbles, 6 fumbles lost).

So what do I expect from Darnold? He is going to put the ball in harms way more than a handful of times – either throw errant passes or put the ball on the ground.

Will the Patriots make the plays when Darnold presents them? I say, yes. I am expecting at least one interception and one fumble from Sam D. And I emphasize the "at least" part.

Patriots Defense On A Mission

This Patriots defense is pissed, and rightfully so. It scares me to watch Milton William's postgame interviews. I wouldn't want to be lining up across from him or this next guy, either.

I haven't seen Christian Barmore play as good as he has in the second half of this season. This is the Christian Barmore we were watching breakout at the end of the 2023 season – which earned him a huge contract extension.

Barmore and Williams are going to wreak havoc in this game. Expect to hear a lot of "oh my"s from color analyst Tom Brady when describing replays of the two blowing through Seattle's offensive line.

"Watch right here, Kevin. Look at Barmore just swim move past Zabel. Zabel is one of the best in the league and he barely got a hand on Barmore."

OR

"Oh my, Kev, look at how Milton Williams just runs right through Sundell like he wasn't even there. I'd hate to be the quarterback and see that coming right at me. Brrr."

The Patriots defense gave up the fourth lowest total points per game (18.8) during the regular season. Yet all you've heard leading up to all four of New England's playoff games was how good – or better yet – how GREAT the opposition's defense is. Nary a word about New England's.

The Patriots defense has responded by giving up only 26 points in the first three playoff games.

The great Seattle Seahawks' defense? They gave up 27 points in one game against the Rams.

So let's do the math – add the seven, carry over the one, subtract the six...

No way, this can't be right, can it?:

The Patriots defense has given up one less point in three playoff games than the Seahawks did in one game!!!

Key Injuries

Both teams come into the Super Bowl extremely healthy. The Patriots may be without Harold Landry III, but that doesn't worry me. Landry has a great first half, but faded down the stretch.

The Robert Spillane ankle injury worries me a little more, but Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens have filled in just fine.

The biggest injury impact, however, will be felt by Seattle not having backup running back, Zach Charbonnet.

But, Tony, he is only a backup.

I hear you thinking that. Charbonnet was far more than a backup running back to Kenneth Walker III. If Walker is considered Seattle's number one running back, then Charbonnet is 1-A.

The 2023 second round pick for the Seahawks emerged as Seattle's goal line back this season, vulturing 12 rushing touchdowns from Walker. (See what I did there?)

Much like with the Patriots foresee handling their young explosive running back, TreVeyon Henderson, the Seahawks have always been cautious of giving Walker too heavy of a workload.

Walker averaged 13 carries per game during the regular season but has carried 19 times in each of the two Seattle playoff wins.

Here's what the Patriots have done to their opponent's lead back in the playoffs:

Kimani Vidal (Chargers) - 11 carries, 31 yards

Woody Marks (Texans) - 14 carries, 17 yards

RJ Harvey (Broncos) - 13 carries, 37 yards

I fully expect the Patriots rush defense – even without Spillane – to stuff Walker. Walker may break one run that skews his numbers a bit, but I think he comes well short of thebetting line of 74.5 rushing yards. I'm afraid Walker might be spend portions of the Super Bowl sitting in the blue tent (nothing too serious, I pray).

Key coaching matchup

I know Mike Vrabel would, privately, hate to hear me say this, but the key coaching matchup in the Super Bowl will be

Seattle's Mike Macdonald and – no, not Vrabel – but New England offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. 

I love both their stories and how they started at the bottom of organizations and worked their way up.

While still a college student at the University of Georgia, Macdonald got hired to coach football at a local high school. From there, he began his NFL career as a low-level intern with Baltimore, steadily climbing to become defensive assistant under John Harbaugh.

Josh McDaniels was a football coaching prodigy as well. He started with the New England Patriots as a personnel assistant at just 23 years old in 2001. From that entry-level support role, he went on to become Tom Brady's quarterback coach in 2004 and New England's offensive coordinator in 2006.

McDaniels is the last left standing in New England from Belichick's (should be) Hall of Fame coaching career. And that says a lot for McDaniels, because Vrabel has made it a point of cutting any and all ties to previous Patriots' regimes.

For the true football fan who will be focused on the actual game Sunday night – as others around you discuss the commercials or stuff their mouths full of food – this matchup of the two Macs (I know, I know, one is "Mc"… let it go) will be like watching former chess prodigies Bobby Fischer and Boris Spassky facing off against each other in a series of chess matches that was billed as the "The Match of the Century" in 1972.

Macdonald prides his defensive schemes on causing chaos and confusion up front – especially with the way he moves his safeties around. He knows he is going up against a young quarterback and he will disguise blitzes and coverages in hopes of confusing him.

McDaniels is more of a counter puncher and a cerebral tactician. He will focus on matchups and sniff out weaknesses in his opponents. I can't even believe I am about to write this, but McDaniels has been to ten Super Bowls as a coach. No stage is too big for him at this point. 

Just look at the wise words he gave Drake Maye with just over six minutes left in the AFC Championship Game.

Drake Maye was caught in a rare moment of an athlete expressing self doubt on the sideline. Maye was looking defeated – bundled under an oversized winter jacket, shivering cold, trying to turn his face away from the blizzard conditions which was blasting wind and snow in his face like tiny pin pricks.

McDaniels dropped to one knee in front of his young quarterback and spoke as someone who has been there and knows the work – physical and mental – that is required to climb the mountaintop. He reassured his second-year quarterback that the coaching staff had a plan and all Maye had to do was execute it on the field. If he could do that, what awaited him would be so worth it.

Those are the things about coaching you can't learn in text books. You can't learn about how to understand and manipulate human emotions and feelings. That humility for the game, that calmness, that awareness, that quiet confidence, THAT CONNECTION, can only be achieved through experience.

But here is the change in the equation for Josh – for the majority of his coaching career he had the greatest quarterback in NFL history on the field executing the vision he had in his mind. Towards the end, McDaniels and Brady began sharing the same vision and seeing the same things.

I have no problem saying that Drake Maye is more talented than Tom Brady – from Brady's perfectly dimpled chin on down.

But the secret to Brady's greatness was contained from the neck up. No quarterback in NFL history has proven to match Brady in that department – the calmness under enormous time pressure, the ability to perform on the biggest stages in the biggest moments, the dedication to his craft.

Does Drake Maye have that "it" factor? That is what we need to find out. Maybe not just yet.

Thee Key Matchup in the Game

Believe it or not – even though I picked the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game, I was rooting hard for Seattle to win.

Why would I want the team that I thought was the better team to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl?

I feared LA's multitude of offensive weapons – Nacua, Adams, Kyren Williams, Corum, Higbee, Parkinson --orchestrated by a seasoned veteran quaterback who already had a Super Bowl ring on his résumé.

Remarkably, this will be the fourth playoff game for both 28-year-old Darnold and the 23-year-old Drake Maye. If Maye wins, he will become the youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

Believe it or not, this will be the only time I mention Maye in this article. I am not worried about any shoulder injury. Remember how Patriots fans were all worried about Brady's ankle going into the 2001 Super Bowl? Brady did just fine.

And so will Maye. He has come out jittery, or too amped up, in several games this year – air mailing balls early. If playing in the Super Bowl doesn't make you amped up or jittery, I don't know what will. Maye is not nearly at the point Brady got to where Brady could take a nap right before a Super Bowl game.

I do expect Maye to turn the ball over in the first quarter for that very reason. I can easily see him losing two fumbles and throwing one pick over the entirety of the game.

But I also foresee him making some big plays – either with his arm or legs. I am thinking 240 yards and 1 TD (Boutte) passing to go along with 40-45 yards rushing.

But the key matchup won't be Darnold vs Maye.

It may not even be McDaniels against Macdonald.

No, the key matchup will be Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Christian Gonzalez.

There is nothing more that needs to be said about JSN. If you don't know about him, you wouldn't be reading this article.

JSN led the league with 117 receptions and 1793 yards receiving. Many so-called "experts" consider him "uncoverable."

Well, we'll see about that.

One of the cooler things I saw after the Patriots victory over Denver was Denver's Patrick Surtain II coming over and hugging Gonzalez at midfield. Surtain is the only cornerback in the league I might consider putting above Gonzalez. The mics picked up Surtain saying to the guy that picked off his quarterback's final pass to end his team's season:

“You know I respect your game heavy… I respect your game heavily, for sure. You make it look so easy, bro.” 

For a reigning Defensive Player of the Year to pull a young corner aside and tell him he makes "it look so easy" is very revealing about how Gonzalez is thought of by his peers – not journalists, "experts," or even coaches.

This was the other top cornerback in the NFL telling him this.

Oh yeah,  and it was a real classy move by Surtain. Respect!

So the reason I was hoping to face the Seahawks is because, in my simple tiny brain, I figure: Stop JSN, you shut down the Seattle offense. Easy.

The problem is Seattle lines up JSN everywhere in their formations. Expect to see him lined up in the backfield on almost every drive.

Gonzalez is an outside, boundary cornerback. He is used to dealing with the team's X wide receiver. Think DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase – those types. 

Having Gonzalez shadow JSN would involve having Gonzalez line up in the slot and someone else in New England's secondary be out of place covering an outside receiver.

I don't care. I want to see Gonzalez cover JSN at least 90% of the time. If the Patriots want to try and mix it up once in a long while just to give Seattle and Darnold a different look – fine.

I want to see what Gonzalez can do against JSN. I have watched Seattle games where JSN disappears for long stretches. It was usually games (Minnesota, Arizona, New Orleans) where their running game – with both Williams and Charbonnet – was chewing up yards and they didn't need the passing game.

As a totally unnecessary aside – it was usually games where I had bet the over on JSN's receptions and yards, but that's besides the point. Hmmm, now that I think about it, maybe I should put $20 on JSN overs!

Prediction

The moment you've all been waiting for!! Finally, I know. Thanks for bearing with me.

This game is going to be a tough watch. There will be turnovers. There will be plenty of three and outs. There is going to be a lot of sacks.

Which leads me to two prop bets on DraftKings I absolutely looooove:

Total sacks by both teams: OVER 5.5 (-110)

(I actually got that at OVER 4.5 earlier in the week which made it more of a steal!)

Total Players to Have a Pass Attempt: OVER 2.5 (+130)

I feel confident there will be a trick player where one of the offensive coordinators is going to want to shine the spotlight on themselves by having a WR or RB throw a pass. Hey, if one of the QBs gets knocked out for even a series, you will cash this bet. Maye is rumored to have a shoulder injury and Darnold has an olique issue. How about a fake punt – that would work, too.

I may also throw a couple of bucks just for the heck of it on a longshot:

An offensive lineman to score a touchdown: YES (+2000)

I am looking at you, Thayer Munford.

Player to record a sack and cause a fumble and recover ball on same play: K'Lavon Chaisson (+10000)

I'm just expecting a big game out of Chaisson. Wouldn't surprise me if he wins MVP (+12000 if you're curious). Marcus Jones is +6000 to win and I can very easily see that happening. This is one of those games where defense and special teams will make the difference. I think Vegas agrees with me as they have WR/KR Rashid Shaheed at only +3000 to win the MVP.

I actually feel very strongly about Khyiris Tonga catching a TD pass. I can almost bank on Vrabel trying to get one of these guys a TD catch. Vrabel is big on rewarding players and, also, doing ironical things. Tonga would be perfect – for all the contributions he has given the offense at fullback. Keep in mind Vrabel caught two TD passes in Super Bowls. Vrabel is big on rewarding players and, also, doing ironic things.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about the game:

Patriots 21, Seahawks 17.

Why the Patriots Will Win

You mean besides me putting money on JSN overs?

I think coaching matters. I haven't watched all of Seattle's games this year, but I saw about half. I've seen enough time management gaffes by Macdonald to think that he gets too caught up in calling his defensive plays that he loses track of time. 

Macdonald would be the first ever Super Bowl head coach to both call his own defensive plays and win. Might there be a reason for that?

They say defenses win Super Bowls, but my counter to that, simply, is Tom Brady.

A head coach who emphasizes defense is at a disadvantage when his team has the ball late in the game – either while winning or losing. It is offenses that control the pace of the game. They snap the ball when they want to. They decide if the play is going to be a pass or run. The defense is always at the offense's mercy.

That is why a head coach needs to understand both sides of the ball.

Or else, picture this scenario:

You are down by three with one timeout left and under a minute to go in the game. 

Your possible future Hall of Fame running back – let's give him a nickname like, oh let's say, "Beast Mode" which is indicative of his violent running style – narrowly missed getting into the end zone on the previous play. 

It is only second down. Ball at the one.

Tick. Tick. Tick.

You don't want to score too fast because the other team has a potent offense and a clutch quarterback. 

You look at your offense huddled at the ten-yard line. Players are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Some are making a move to run off the sideline, then they stop and look at the sideline confused.

Are they unorganized? Maybe they're excited they are this close to winning a Super Bowl.

Your quarterback is screaming at you from the huddle:

"What do you wanna do? Call a timeout? No? Then what's the play?"

Tick. Tick. Tick.

The clock is winding down to under 30 seconds to go.

"Why isn't the other team calling a timeout? Are they just going to let me wind the clock down so when we score they have no time left? This is too good to be true. Oh, shit the play clock. I forgot about that."

You've been paying so much attention to the game clock (34, 33, 32...) that you didn't notice the play clock winding down 15, 14, 13...

You don't want to get a delay of game penalty to move you from near the goal line back to the 6-yard line.

"Coach, coach, the play? What's the play?"

Huh, what? Oh! Ok, quick. They know that I know that they know I am giving the ball to Beast Mode. Why aren't they calling a timeout again? No, focus. The play call. Let's surprise them with a pass play. Let's run our favorite pick play.

Your team rushes to the line of scrimmage. They rush to get the play off in time.

The result is the other team intercepts the pass.

NOOOOO!!!

You let a Super Bowl slip through your fingers because you lost focus and panicked. It'll be remembered as one of the dumbest coaching decisions in history.

Couldn't happen?

Hmmm.