NFL Week 5 Picks: Bills-Rams Headlines a Loaded Schedule
Finally, I had a very good week. Maybe coincidentally, it sounds like a lot of the "experts" had bad ones. So maybe I still suck at making picks this year.
Or maybe I AM THE EXPERT!
Thursday Night Football – October 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2) – 8:15 PM (Prime Video)
Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS -8.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
You think Jalon Daniels will be able to keep up with Dak Prescott on Dallas' home turf?
Me neither.
Don't overthink this one.
Score: Dallas 27, Tampa Bay 16
Sunday, October 11, 2026 – London
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) – 9:30 AM (NFL Network)
Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jacksonville has played 14 games in England and they are 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (Hotspur?). England is like their home away from home.
Philadelphia is too banged up and future Hall of Fame tackle Lane Johnson decided midweek to hang up his cleats and retire.
And (as I write this) Philadelphia just traded their two-time Pro Bowl center Cam Jurgens to Baltimore. I almost feel bad for Jalen Hurts.
Almost.
Score: Jacksonville 31, Philadelphia 13
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England
Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM Window
Cleveland Browns (3-1) at New York Jets (1-3) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: CLEVELAND
ATS Pick: CLEVELAND +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 39.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
How is Cleveland (3-1) an underdog to the Jets (1-3)? I have been very impressed with the Browns' rookie receivers, KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.
Score: Cleveland 20, NY Jets 16
Chicago Bears (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-2) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: CHICAGO
ATS Pick: CHICAGO -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Green Bay has no running game and their defense can't stop the run. Atlanta rushed for 242 yards against them two weeks ago.
Chicago has the #1 rush offense in the league. It won't matter who the Bears' quarterback is.
Score: Chicago 26, Green Bay 23
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-4) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: CINCINNATI
ATS Pick: CINCINNATI -6.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Bengals are banged up, but as long as Joe Burrow is still there, they win easy.
Score: Cincinnati 24, Miami 13
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) at New England Patriots (2-2) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: LAS VEGAS
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sorry, New England, but Drake Maye is not "back" to what he was last year. I still have little faith in his ball security. And now he will have Maxx Crosby in his face all day.
Another update as I write this, Drake Maye was just awarded AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Maybe I'm missing something.
Score: Las Vegas 23, New England 21
Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-3) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: NEW ORLEANS
ATS Pick: NEW ORLEANS +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
I am going with the better quarterback in this one. The Minnesota Vikings have won the last two games despite not scoring a touchdown. They may be the worst 4-0 team in NFL history.
As if Minnesota hasn't had enough problems scoring as is, they may be without their best offensive weapon—Justin Jefferson (concussion).
Score: New Orleans 17, Minnesota 16
Houston Texans (0-4) at Tennessee Titans (0-4) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: HOUSTON
ATS Pick: HOUSTON -7.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 37.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
One of these two teams will be "celebrating" their first win of the season. Unless they tie, of course. That might be an interesting bet.
Houston takes out their season-long frustrations on the Titans.
Keep an eye on Hurricane Isaias as its remnants may affect this game in Tennessee.
Score: Houston 17, Tennessee 7
New York Giants (3-1) at Washington Commanders (1-3) – 1:00 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: WASHINGTON
ATS Pick: NY GIANTS +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐
Question for ya — Who is in first place in the NFC East?
Philadelphia? No.
Dallas? No.
It is your New York Giants. Yet they are underdogs against the 1-3 Commanders. Jayden Daniels is expected back in this game. That is the only explanation for the line.
I think this game hits the over—not because of the offenses. I think there will be 2+ defensive/special teams scores in this one.
Score: Washington 23, NY Giants 21
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – 1:00 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: PITTSBURGH
ATS Pick: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
I think I got Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers figured out. About every other game they look real good. I will hedge my bet by picking Pittsburgh to win, but Indianapolis to cover—just in case Indianapolis wins.
Score: Pittsburgh 26, Indianapolis 24
Sunday, October 11 – 4:05 PM Window
Denver Broncos (2-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) – 4:05 PM (CBS)
Straight-Up Pick: LA CHARGERS
ATS Pick: LA CHARGERS +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Charger have to win one at some point, right?
I am hedging a bit in this one, too. I am a lot more confident in the Chargers covering the spread than I am in them winning outright. This game stays within a field goal.
Bo Nix can't throw the ball downfield. Definitely take Denver under first half team total points (11.5 in most places). They only wake up in the second half.
Score: LA Chargers 20, Denver 17
Sunday, October 11 – 4:25 PM Window
Detroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3) – 4:25 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: ARIZONA
ATS Pick: ARIZONA +5.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 54.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Arizona broke my heart last week as Jacoby Brissett threw a pick-six on the last play of the game with Arizona on the NY Giants 4-yard line and needing a touchdown to win.
Detroit is hoping to get Brian Branch back this week, but one person can't help this Detroit secondary.
Expect Jacoby Brissett to throw 45+ times. This will be a shootout. Dan Campbell's days as head coach of the Lions are numbered.
Score: Arizona 37, Detroit 34
San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – 4:25 PM (FOX)
Straight-Up Pick: SAN FRANCISCO
ATS Pick: SAN FRANCISCO +2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 45.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Seattle has the home-field advantage in this one, but San Francisco has won the last four regular-season games in Seattle. They got crushed in Seattle in the playoffs, 41-6, last year, though.
But this is the regular season.
Score: San Francisco 23, Seattle 20
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – 8:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)
Straight-Up Pick: ATLANTA
ATS Pick: BALTIMORE +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under: 43.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
If anyone only watched Atlanta these last two weeks in prime time, they must think they are Super Bowl favorites. While I'm happy at the turnaround under Michael Penix Jr.—prior to the season, I bet Atlanta to win the NFC South—they are not as good as they have looked.
Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson, but Ty Huntley has had some big games filling in.
Bijan Robinson is a monster in prime time. There should be a lot of points in this one, even without Lamar.
Score: Atlanta 26, Baltimore 23
Monday Night Football – October 12, 2026
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2) – 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)
Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: BUFFALO +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½
Over/Under: 54.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The last time these two faced off at SoFi Stadium, they put up 86 points. I never feel comfortable betting against Josh Allen, so I have a lot more faith in this game going over 53.5 points than I do in the Rams covering.
Score: LA Rams 31, Buffalo 28