NFL Week 15 Picks and Score Predictions
There were some shady calls last week by NFL refs and one extremely controversial (for bettors) coaching decision to kick a meaningless field goal at the end of regulation. How much more do we need to see? The league isn't even hiding it anymore. I knew there was a reason I was having a down year picking games. Make you wonder...
On a more serious note, I want to point out that just because my record below might look like I am having a bad year, it has been actually quite profitable. How can that be, you ask?
First of all, I have to pick all the games for this article, but if I'm betting, I don't have to pick all of them.
Secondly, in betting, your overall win-loss record is secondary to your profitability. The key is that winning bets with longer odds can easily offset the losses from several bets that were closer to even odds.
Having said that, I am not as embarrassed to reveal my won-loss records to this point.
Last Week
- Straight Up: 6-8
- Against the Spread (ATS): 4-10
- Over/Under: 7-7
For the Season
- Straight Up: 126-79 (62.07%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 96-110 (46.60%)
- Over/Under: 97-107 (47.55%)
Let's try this again:
Thursday, December 11
Falcons (4-9) @ Buccaneers (7-6)
Spread: TB –5.5 | Total: 43.5
Tampa suffered an incomprehensible loss at home last week to the New Orleans Saints. That just can't happen. It better not happen again or Baker Mayfield and company will be home for the playoffs.
Kirk Cousins has a horrible record on prime time and he will be without Drake London.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER.
Sunday, December 14 — Early Games (1:00 PM ET)
Browns (3-10) @ Bears (9-4)
Spread: CHI –7.5 | Total: 38.5
What got into the Browns last week? They scored 29 points ... but LOST. Let's see how the Bears respond to losing for the first time after having won five in a row. The Browns better do a better job against the 2nd-ranked Bears' rushing offense than they did last week against the Titans (184 yards rushing).
Prediction: Bears 20, Browns 16. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.
Ravens (6-7) @ Bengals (4-9)
Spread: BAL –2.5 | Total: 52.5
Everything was lined up for the Ravens to take their rightful spot at the top of the division. That was the script everyone thought the season was written. Apparently, the refs didn't read the script. That was a horrible overturn of a touchdown "catch" by Ravens' tight end Isaiah Likely that may have decided the game... and the Ravens' season.
The Bengals blew a 21-point lead in Buffalo. The scary part is they did have a 21-point lead in Buffalo.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Ravens 27. Take the BENGALS and the OVER.
Chargers (9-4) @ Chiefs (6-7)
Spread: KC –3.5 | Total: 42.5
Everyone keeps wanting to write off the Chiefs, but they aren't dead yet. Believe it or not, they still have about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. They have the Titans and the Raiders remaining so they need to take care of business against the Chargers and the Broncos (both games in KC). They would still need help.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 19. Take the CHARGERS and the UNDER.
Bills (9-4) @ Patriots (11-2)
Spread: BUF –1.5 | Total: 49.5
I can honestly say, as a Patriots fan – I have no idea about this game. I have flip-flopped on it all week. Remember what I mentioned in the beginning about picking and choosing what games to bet on. I wouldn't touch this one, but if I had to pick – and I do for this article – I am going with Buffalo. I just don't think it will be that easy for the Patriots to win the AFC East. This is the game that will remind Patriots fans that Milton Williams hasn't been playing.
Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 24. Take the BILLS and the OVER.
Commanders (3-10) @ Giants (2-11)
Spread: NYG –2.5 | Total: 46.5
One of the saddest things to come out of last week was the possible career-ending injury to Washington tight end, Zach Ertz. Oh yeah, and Jayden Daniels got re-injured.
Prediction: Giants 20, Commanders 14. Take the GIANTS and the OVER.
Raiders (2-11) @ Eagles (8-5)
Spread: PHI –11.5 | Total: 38.5
The Eagles have lost three in a row. Jalen Hurts threw four interceptions Monday night in an overtime loss to the one-handed Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers. He better not play like that when he returns to Philly.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Raiders 17. Take the RAIDERS and the OVER.
Jets (3-10) @ Jaguars (9-4).
Spread: JAX –13.5 | Total: 41.5
There were a few teams that just didn't show up last week. The Jets were one of them. Liam Coen's Jaguars have been showing up all season.
Prediction: Jaguars 34, Jets 10. Take the JAGUARS and the OVER.
Cardinals (3-10) @ Texans (8-5)
Spread: HOU –9.5 | Total: 42.5
I have the Texans ranked 7th in my power rankings this week. They will be dangerous in the playoffs. The Texans have the fourth best odds (+550) of making the Super Bowl – behind only the Patriots (+370), the Broncos (+370), and the Bills (+370). The Cardinals are ready to pack it in.
Prediction: Texans 24, Cardinals 16. Take the CARDINALS and the UNDER.
Sunday, December 14 — Late Games (4:25 PM ET)
Packers (9-3-1) @ Broncos (11-2)
Spread: GB –2.5 | Total: 42.5
The Broncos are 11-2 and they are two-point underdogs at home. Here's another betting tip – the NFC is -2 to win the Super Bowl. I'd jump on that.
Prediction: Packers 20, Broncos 16. Take the PACKERS and the UNDER.
Lions (8-5) @ Rams (10-3)
Spread: LAR –6 | Total: 54.5
Besides the Bills-Patriots, this is the other Game of the Week. Just set the rabbit loose on the track and let these two greyhounds loose.
Prediction: Rams 36, Lions 27. Take the RAMS and the OVER.
Panthers (7-6) @ Saints (3-10)
Spread: CAR –2.5 | Total: 40.5
You gotta believe the Saints are going to suffer a let down after upsetting Tampa Bay, right? The Panthers are well-rested coming off a bye. They saw what New Orleans did to Tampa. They will be ready.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Saints 14. Take the PANTHERS and the UNDER.
Titans (2-11) @ 49ers (9-4)
Spread: SF –12.5 | Total: 44.5
Speaking of let downs and being well rested. The Titans are coming off a 31-point scoring outburst against the Browns. The 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye week. This one won't be Purdy. I've noticed I use that "Purdy" pun too much.
Prediction: 49ers 33, Titans 10. Take the 49ers and the UNDER.
Colts (8-5) @ Seahawks (10-3)
Spread: SEA –13.5 | Total: 42.5
Speaking of not pretty – Daniel Jones' Achilles. That was right up there with the Ertz injury.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Colts 9. Take the SEAHAWKS and the UNDER.
Sunday Night Football — 8:20 PM
Vikings (5-8) @ Cowboys (6-6-1)
Spread: DAL –5.5 | Total: 48.5
The Eagles keep losing so – just like the Chiefs – the Cowboys aren't dead yet, either. Which Vikings' team shows up this week – the one that got shut out in Seattle or the one that shut out Washington?
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 20. Take the COWBOYS and the UNDER.
Monday Night Football — December 15
Dolphins (6-7) @ Steelers (7-6)
Spread: PIT –3 | Total: 41.5
Monday Night Football will be a special night. Why, you ask? Because it is my birthday, of course. Don't tell me you forgot! Just kidding. When you get to my age, it is just another day.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Dolphins 19. Take the STEELERS and the OVER.