After months of waiting, talking about free agency, discussing romantic relationships, breaking down the draft, watching training camp battles, and obsessing over contract negotiations, the NFL regular season is here.

Let’s go!

As a Patriots fan, I’ve probably been looking forward to this season even more than usual. I’ve been dying to get the bad taste of that Super Bowl loss out of my mouth. Making it all the way there in Mike Vrabel’s first season was an incredible ride, but when you get that close, it makes the offseason feel even longer.

Now we finally get to do it all over again.

This also marks the third season that I’ll be posting my NFL picks every week here on TOBRAsports. Where has the time gone?

Anyway, I am ready to have my best season yet. I have had two years to hone my skills.

I will make picks on every game three ways: Straight-Up (Moneyline), Against the Spread (ATS), and the Over/Under point total. I don’t shy away from any game, and I grade myself on every one—although this year I’ll also be including a section called Best Bets.

Year One went extremely well.

Year Two? Not so much.

Then again, the 2025 NFL season felt unusually unpredictable from beginning to end. Heck, the Patriots made it to the Super Bowl. If that doesn’t qualify as a strange NFL season, I’m not sure what does.

Here is my résumé, if you are wondering (and I know you are):

2024 Record

Moneyline: 139-69 (66.83%)
ATS: 113-90-2 (55.12%)
Over/Under: 106-99 (51.71%)

2025 Record

Moneyline: 163-100 (61.98%)
ATS: 128-137 (48.31%)
Over/Under: 132-132 (50.00%)

Two-Year Record

Moneyline: 302-169 (64.12%)
ATS: 241-227-2 (51.28%)
Over/Under: 238-231 (50.75%)

So, after a strong debut season and a much more humbling sophomore slump, it’s time to see if I can make the Year Three Jump.

The records are back to 0-0.

The slate is clean.

And Week 1 is here.

Let’s pick some football.

Betting lines are from ESPN and were current when each pick was made.

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – 8:20 PM (NBC)

Straight-Up Pick: SEATTLE
ATS Pick: NE +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐

Mike Vrabel is 2-5 in season openers as a head coach, including losses in each of his last four. That concerns me, especially when you consider that New England’s frontline starters sat out all three preseason games. Then you expect the team to go from the Foxboro practice fields to Seattle’s Lumen Field—a home stadium considered so tough that the Seahawks retired No. 12 in honor of their fans? That’s a tough ask.

Score: Seattle 24, New England 21.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – 8:35 PM (Netflix)

Straight-Up Pick: LA RAMS
ATS Pick: LA RAMS -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

The Rams were already among the Super Bowl favorites, and then they traded for Myles Garrett. Now Aaron Donald has come out of retirement.

That’s just not fair.

San Francisco hasn’t exactly enjoyed a quiet offseason. Its owner was arrested, its head coach suffered serious injuries in a car accident, Brandon Aiyuk’s ugly breakup with the organization included an arrest warrant, and defensive lineman Keion White was shot at a nightclub. That’s before even getting into the 49ers’ extensive injury problems entering Week 1.

Maybe it is the curse of Jimmy Garoppolo.

This game is being played in Australia. The two teams are taking very different approaches to their travel schedules. The 49ers arrived a week before the game to get their bodies acclimated to the time and weather. The Rams, meanwhile, are planning to arrive only about a day before the game. That means the Rams will spend less time on the ground in Australia than they will in the air flying back and forth from Los Angeles.

That makes the UNDER very appealing to me.

Score: LA Rams 24, San Francisco 16.

Sunday, September 13, 2026 – 1:00 PM Window

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: CINCINNATI
ATS Pick: TAMPA BAY +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 50.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

This game has shootout written all over it. Oh, maybe I shouldn’t use the word “shootout” after just finishing talking about the 49ers—sorry, Keion White and Ricky Pearsall.

Just like Vrabel, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor’s teams have a history of getting off to slow starts. They reversed it in 2025 by going 2-0, but in Taylor’s previous six seasons as head coach, the Bengals were a combined 1-11 in the first two games of the season. That included five 0-2 starts.

That’s not a fluke. That’s a trend.

Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield hasn’t been happy about his contract situation. Will that light a fire under him or become a distraction? I don’t think Mayfield knows the word “complacent.”

Mayfield earned something of a road-warrior reputation in 2024, when Tampa Bay went 5-3 away from home. The Bucs came back down to earth a little in 2025, going 2-3 as road underdogs. Still, Mayfield has shown he loves playing in hostile environments.

Score: CINCINNATI 30, TAMPA BAY 27.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: DETROIT
ATS Pick: DETROIT -7
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 49.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

This is one of the highest over/under totals on the board. Detroit’s Ford Field is the Coors Field of football. Games at Ford Field went 6-2 to the OVER last year, with the two teams combining for an average of 55.5 points per game.

Enough said.

Score: DETROIT 35, NEW ORLEANS 27.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: NY JETS
ATS Pick: NY JETS +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 39.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

You couldn’t pay me enough to watch this game.

Who am I kidding? I’d do it for $1,000.

Times are tough, ya know.

Score: NY JETS 19, TENNESSEE 16.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: BALTIMORE
ATS Pick: BALTIMORE -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

I got an opportunity to watch the Colts at joint practices with the Patriots.

Yuck!

Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, but he entered training camp saying he was 100 percent and was cleared for full 11-on-11 work. His ability to run has always been a big part of his game, so it will be worth watching how that explosiveness translates back to game speed. Fortunately for him—and for running back Jonathan Taylor—the Colts have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

Jesse Minter takes over for Jim Harbaugh as head coach of the Ravens. Unlike Harbaugh, Minter comes from a defensive background, serving as the defensive coordinator for the Chargers the last two seasons.

Most importantly, the Ravens have a new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle.

Lamar Jackson is healthy after an injury-plagued 2025 season. He has also been openly enthusiastic about Doyle’s new offense.

That is bad news for the AFC.

Score: BALTIMORE 29, INDIANAPOLIS 19.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: ATLANTA
ATS Pick: ATLANTA +3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Speaking of new head coaches, this game features two of them. They’re not really “new” coaches, though, as they have both been riding the ponies on the NFL head-coaching carousel for a while now.

Mike McCarthy is taking over for longtime Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. He will also be reuniting with Aaron Rodgers after spending their best years together in Green Bay.

Why would McCarthy ever want to do that?

The Falcons have hired two-time AP Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski, hopefully, will finally maximize Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s stud running back. Robinson, inexplicably, had 14 or fewer carries in six games last year. Not surprisingly, the Falcons went 1-5 in those games.

Robinson’s backup, Tyler Allgeier, had 143 carries despite averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. Robinson averaged 5.1 yards per carry, yet the distribution was still roughly 67% Bijan/33% Allgeier.

Allgeier is now in Arizona, although the Falcons signed veteran Brian Robinson Jr. as a free agent.

Give Bijan the ball!

Score: ATLANTA 19, PITTSBURGH 17.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers – 1:00 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: CHICAGO
ATS Pick: CHICAGO -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 47.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I have never been a believer in Bryce Young. I’ve also never been a believer in Caleb Williams.

The difference: I am starting to come around on Caleb.

Not on Bryce.

The moment I came around on Caleb Williams came in the playoffs last year against the Rams. Facing fourth down with Chicago’s season on the line, Williams retreated more than 20 yards under pressure, then threw off his back foot and found Cole Kmet in the back corner of the end zone to force overtime.

Officially, it was a 14-yard touchdown pass, but the ball traveled 51.2 yards through the air.

I hate to admit it—that is one of the greatest passes I’ve ever seen.

Both these defenses are real bad.

Score: CHICAGO 33, CAROLINA 23.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: JACKSONVILLE
ATS Pick: JACKSONVILLE -7.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐

Deshaun Watson.

Need I say more?

Score: JACKSONVILLE 30, CLEVELAND 9.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans – 1:00 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: HOUSTON
ATS Pick: HOUSTON +1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Josh Allen is only 1-4 against Houston, including the playoffs. In those five games, he has thrown exactly as many interceptions as touchdowns—three of each.

His game in Houston in 2024 was especially memorable for how bad he was. He completed only 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards.

Allen is 0-4 playing in Houston.

This game is being played...

...in Houston.

Score: HOUSTON 21, BUFFALO 20.

Sunday, September 13 – 4:25 PM Window

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: LAS VEGAS
ATS Pick: LAS VEGAS -3.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 40.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There’s some irony in Kirk Cousins now playing for Tom Brady’s Raiders. Cousins has earned more in NFL salary than Brady did during his entire playing career—despite Brady winning seven Super Bowls to Cousins’ one playoff win.

Score: LAS VEGAS 20, MIAMI 16.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) – 4:25 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: MINNESOTA
ATS Pick: MINNESOTA -1.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs, which takes away its best defensive player and its top running back.

I also have a lot of faith in the Vikings’ coaching combination of Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. Flores’ defense finished third in the NFL in total defense last season, while O’Connell has already shown what he can do with a quarterback whose career appeared to be heading in the wrong direction—just look at Sam Darnold.

Let’s see if O’Connell can do the same for Kyler Murray.

I think he will.

Score: MINNESOTA 23, GREEN BAY 21.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) – 4:25 PM (FOX)

Straight-Up Pick: PHILADELPHIA
ATS Pick: WASHINGTON +5.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 44.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jayden Daniels has shown a knack for late-game comebacks and fourth-quarter magic, which makes me hesitant to lay too many points against him. I also expect Jalen Hurts to feel the loss of A.J. Brown, and I wasn’t particularly impressed with how Hurts and the Eagles’ offense looked during the joint practices in Foxboro.

Philadelphia is the better team, but Washington has the quarterback and late-game resilience to hang around.

Plus, if Hurts struggles early, the Philly crowd will not feel like much of a home-field advantage.

Washington’s offensive line is really bad. That’s why Daniels’ rushing-yards line has risen from 29.5 yards earlier in the week to around 40 in most markets. I got my bet in at 29.5. Betting on him going over 40 yards is a lot riskier, but I’d still consider it.

He is going to be running for his life.

Score: PHILADELPHIA 20, WASHINGTON 16.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) – 4:25 PM (CBS)

Straight-Up Pick: LA CHARGERS
ATS Pick: ARIZONA +10.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐½

Over/Under: 46.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½

I don’t think Arizona is nearly as bad as a lot of people seem to believe. I’m still taking the Chargers because I trust Justin Herbert more, but the Cardinals showed late last season that they can pile up points even when games start getting away from them.

Jacoby Brissett even set the NFL regular-season record with 47 completions in a game against San Francisco, throwing for 452 yards.

Jacoby Brissett.

There is always that one major upset in Week 1. Arizona has some talent on offense—Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and rookie running back and No. 3 overall draft pick Jeremiyah Love.

Might this be that upset?

Score: LA CHARGERS 30, ARIZONA 23.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants – 8:20 PM (NBC)

Straight-Up Pick: DALLAS
ATS Pick: DALLAS -2.5
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 48.5
O/U Pick: OVER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maybe I am missing something, but I think Dallas wins this one fairly big. The Cowboys have absolutely owned the Giants, winning nine of the last 10 meetings.

I like Jaxson Dart, but the Giants don’t have the firepower to keep pace once Dallas gets rolling offensively.

New York has Malik Nabers, although his Week 1 availability remains a question as he finishes his recovery from last season’s ACL tear. Beyond him, the receiving corps of Darius Slayton, Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr., and rookie Malachi Fields doesn’t scare me much.

Meanwhile, Dallas can attack with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.

Who would you rather have?

Score: DALLAS 34, NY GIANTS 24.

Monday Night Football – September 14, 2026

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Straight-Up Pick: DENVER
ATS Pick: DENVER +3
ATS Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under: 42.5
O/U Pick: UNDER
O/U Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Call it an upset, if you will, but I’ve got Denver winning a low-scoring, drag-’em-out type of game.

The Broncos played in the AFC Championship Game last season without Bo Nix, who fractured his right ankle late in their Divisional Round win over Buffalo. I hate to admit it as a New England fan, but looking back now, if Nix had been healthy for the AFC Championship Game, Denver might have been playing in the Super Bowl instead of New England.

Patrick Mahomes is also making his return from a serious injury after suffering ACL and LCL tears in his left knee in December.

Both quarterbacks are coming back sooner than I expected.

Gotta love modern medicine and technology.

Kansas City is finding out that it’s not so easy to sustain a dynasty over decades like the Patriots and Tom Brady did. Age and injuries are huge obstacles. I think the lines on Chiefs games for the immediate future will reflect their reputation more than reality.

Cash in while you can.

The only thing giving me pause is that this game is in Kansas City.

Score: DENVER 20, KANSAS CITY 17.

BEST BETS

These are my strongest plays of Week 1.

Against the Spread

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Over/Under

Chicago Bears/Carolina Panthers OVER 46.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants OVER 48.5 — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐