NFL MVP: I apply my Jimmy G test to the candidates and come out with a winner
There is an obvious bias towards quarterbacks when discussing the NFL MVP. Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards last season for the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Eagles, but it wasn't good enough to keep Josh Allen from being voted MVP. And it has been like that since 2012 when it took Adrian Peterson rushing for 2,097 yards to win the MVP away from the quarterbacks.
This year, the MVP chatter started with Colts' quarterback Daniel Jones when the Colts got off to red-hot 7-1 start. It didn't matter that Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor was averaging over 100 yards rushing per game and had 12 rushing touchdowns through those eight games. Daniel Jones was the quarterback. He got the accolades.
Right around the time the Colts started cooling off, Baker Mayfield got a lot of hype as he was keeping Tampa Bay in the thick of things despite having several of his offensive weapons sidelined. The season didn't end well for Baker and his Bucs – going 1-7 over an eight-game stretch which cost Tampa a playoff berth.
Veteran Matthew Stafford was steady all year and he became the safe pick in the second half of the season. But, hold the phone – people started to take notice that the Patriots were not losing. Suddenly Drake Maye became the media darling. Maye went from heating whispers of "Hey, might the second-year guy deserve to be in the MVP conversation" to being the betting favorite to win the award going into Week 15. The Patriots lost to the Bills that week and public opinion swayed back to Stafford.
But might be there someone else other than Stafford or Maye who deserves to win MVP this season? Here's a look at my top five list:
5) Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
I am going at this list as if I had a vote for MVP. The people that vote for the NFL MVP only take into consideration the regular season and not the postseason. As a matter of fact, the votes have to be submitted within 48 hours of the end of the last game of the regular season.
It is important to take that into consideration when discussing Justin Herbert. He has been getting eviscerated in the media for his continued failures in the playoffs after his team got knocked out in the Wildcard Round against the New England Patriots, 16-3.
But Herbert was an absolute warrior this season. PFF ranked the Chargers' offensive line 30th out of 32 teams. For most of the year, Herbert played without both his starting offensive tackles. Starting left tackle Rashawn Slater tore his right patellar tendon in training camp and was lost for the year. Joe Alt switched over from right to left tackle but only managed to play five games due to ankle injuries.
The result was Herbert was sacked a league-high 54 times.
Herbert also had very little in terms of a running game to help him. Rookie Omarion Hampton flashed at times, but he fractured his ankle in Week 5.
As if Herbert wasn't handicapped enough, he, himself, sustained a metacarpal fracture in his non-throwing left hand in Week 13 against the Raiders, underwent surgery a day later, and proceeded to play the final four regular-season games with a custom glove and a plate and screws inserted to stabilize the injury.
Nevertheless, he delivered 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, He also rushed for close to 500 yards (496) – out of necessity – averaging over 30 yards rushing per game. Herbert showcased remarkable toughness and respectable performances given his dire circumstances. In hindsight, it is amazing that the Chargers won 11 games this season, and Herbert is the reason why. He was the one constant.
4) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is the reigning MVP and he has done nothing to really hurt his case for repeating this year. He led the Buffalo Bills to a 12-5 record this season, but for the first time since 2019 (New England's first season without Tom Brady), that wasn't good enough to win the AFC East.
What can be said about Allen that hasn't been said before? Until the day he retires, his name can be written in Sharpie as one of the top five candidates for MVP.
For me, the most impressive thing about Josh Allen is his durability. Allen is a unicorn when it comes to quarterbacks. He stands at 6'5", weighs about 240, and has a cannon for an arm. Players his size play linebacker, not quarterback.
Allen has no fear reminding players on defense that he is just as big as some of them. The down side is Allen gets hit harder and more often than any other quarterback. He plays with a reckless abandon. Yet he always bounces back up. Including playoffs, Allen has started 141 consecutive games – 127, if only counting regular season. That is absolutely remarkable.
It is also absolutely criminal how the Bills have not given Allen any weapons to throw to in recent years. It is reminiscent of the Patriots with Tom Brady. It is scary to think how many more Super Bowls Tom Brady, and the Patriots, could have won if Belichick could have drafted a top wide receiver. Instead, there were seasons where Tom Brady's top wide receiver options were players like Reche Caldwell, Brandon LaFell, and over-the-hill guys like Josh Gordon and Chad Ochocinco.
I am seeing history repeat itself in Buffalo.
I think back to the draft of 2024 when the Bills were in position to give Allen the game-breaking wide receiver he so desperately needed. Instead, the Bills traded down and allowed their primary AFC rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, to draft speedster Xavier Worthy. Patrick Mahomes has been thankful ever since.
This season, Allen put up his usual numbers – completing a career-high 69.3% of his passes for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. What truly sets him apart is his ability to take over a game with his legs, rushing for 579 yards and an NFL-leading 14 touchdowns, making him the only player in NFL history with multiple seasons of at least 25 passing and 12 rushing touchdowns.
3) Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Sorry, experts, Matthew Stafford comes in third on my list.
Most people seem to believe Matthew Stafford will win the MVP. His numbers, unquestionably, merit the award. However, it seems the 37-year-old veteran is getting an unfair boost as there are murmurs that Stafford deserves MVP as a sort of Lifetime Achievement Award. He has just finished his 17th regular season in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career, but he has never won MVP for a season (although he did win a Super Bowl MVP in 2022).
He finished the season with an NFL-leading 4,707 passing yards and a league-best 46 passing touchdowns against just 8 interceptions.
The Rams finished 12-5 and played in the toughest division in the NFL. Still, though, as I was thinking about how to evaluate quarterbacks for this award, I conceived of the Jimmy Garoppolo litmus test. It goes like this: if I plugged Jimmy Garoppolo in for said quarterback all season long, how would that team do? Think of it like baseball's Wins Above Replacement stat.
If Jimmy G started all year for the Rams, I think he could still win 9 or 10 games throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (although that didn't go too good when they were with the Raiders together) and handing off to Kyren Williams (1,252 rushing yards) and Blake Corum (746 rushing yards). Heck, I may have been able to win a game.
2) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Now, let's apply the Jimmy Garoppolo Test to Drake Maye's candidacy. The Patriots went a remarkable 14-3 in 2025. In New England's prior two seasons, they had won only four games each year! That alone should put Maye ahead of Stafford.
But what if Jimmy was New England's starting quarterback all season under first-year Patriots coach, Mike Vrabel. Factor in the additions of Stefon Diggs, Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, and Mack Hollins? How many wins would the Patriots win with Jimmy at the helm? I'd say six – seven, max.
Maye finished his first season as a starter as the NFL leader in several key metrics, including completion percentage (72.0% – the only QB to finish over 70%), yards per pass attempt (8.9), and passer rating (113.5). Maye's exceptional efficiency and production, totaling 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions.
As if those numbers aren't enough, Maye is a great guy, to boot. It almost seems unfair.
It's no secret I am a New England fan (just look at the banner of my website), but Maye still does not get my vote for MVP, because...
1) Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
... even Drake Maye would admit, "Oh, shoot, that guy McCaffrey is an awesome player. He had a great year. Shucks, he deserves to win MVP over me."
Simply put, no player has meant more to his team than McCaffrey. The 49ers were decimated with injuries this year – Brandon Ayuk (missed all season), Brock Purdy (missed 8 games), Ricky Pearsall (6 games), George Kittle (missed 6 games), and Jauan Jennings (2 games). And that is just on the offensive side of the ball.
McCaffrey averaged close to 25 touches per game – either running or catching the ball. That means he was hit, running at full speed, almost 25 times per game – and hit hard. And what about blocks and passes he drops?
By comparison, a quarterback gets hit 5-8 times per game. I won't even get into all the protections the NFL gives quarterbacks when it comes to contact. Multiply those differences in game by game, full-impact collisions over a 17-game season and that is why McCaffrey gets my vote.
It is simply amazing Christian McCaffrey was able to maintain his elite level of productivity all season long with all the punishment he took, and with defenses focusing on him. He did it all for the 49ers. Somehow, with all those key injuries, the 49ers won 12 games and almost got the #1 seed in the ultra-competitive NFC, had they won their season finale against the Seattle Seahawks.
McCaffrey finished the season with an NFL-leading 2,126 total yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns. McCaffrey became only the third player in league history with at least 800 rushing and 800 receiving yards in his first 13 games of a season. He finished just 76 yards short of his second 1,000-1,000 yard season. He had 924 yards receiving (102 receptions!) to go along with 1,202 yards rushing.
Applying my Jimmy Garoppolo litmus test to McCaffrey... just kidding. Garoppolo wouldn't survive the first quarter of the first game of the season.
Christian McCaffrey was the Most Valuable Player of the 2025 NFL season and, quite frankly, I don't even think it is close.