NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS & BETTING ANALYSIS
Sometimes a team has another team's number no matter the disparity in records. That seems to be the case with the Carolina Panthers and the LA Rams. The Panthers almost pulled off a monster upset after having already beaten the Rams in Week 13. I lost a couple of parlays because of the Rams – even when I had them teased down to -3.5, but such is life.
The other game that was disappointing for me was the Jaguars versus the Bills. I really thought Jacksonville had a legit chance to make it to the Super Bowl – even though it would have required them to beat my Patriots in the Divisional Round.
That's how big a fan I am of Jacksonville's head coach, Liam Coen. Coen has taken a lot of criticism for not running the ball more against the Bills and their weak run defense. Maybe rightfully so, but the Jags went toe-to-toe with the Bills, flip-flopping the lead four times in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the Bills were on the right end of the last flip-flop.
Otherwise, I wasn't too surprised by the other outcomes. I was surprised when I came back to see that I hadn't picked the 49ers to upset the Eagles in my article for here, but then I remembered the last betting shows I watched prior to the game were saying the 49ers were sooo banged up, "you'd have to be an idiot to bet San Francisco."
Well, I sure didn't want to be an idiot!
So I must have changed my prediction here just before I hit the "publish" button. Fortunately, my real bets I placed earlier in the week weren't affected by the "experts." Sometimes it pays to play your own intuition.
The final results for Wildcard Weekend were typical of the season – right around .500:
- Straight Up: 3-3
- Against the Spread (ATS): 2-4
- Over/Under: 3-3
Bills @ Broncos — Sat 4:30 PM ET (CBS)
Spread: DEN -1.5 | Total: 45.5 — Empower Field at Mile High
The Bills beat the Jaguars, but they paid the price. The Bills were thin at wide receiver to begin with and now they lost both Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis. The good news is they activated both defensive tackle Ed Oliver and wide receiver Curtis Samuel off injured reserve on Friday.
Oliver only played three games in the regular season, and the former first-round pick will be a huge boost to the Bills run defense. If Denver can't run the ball on Buffalo, they will be hearing the "boo" birds from the home crowd a lot. Buffalo's pass defense can be stifling, and Bo Nix shouldn't be much of a problem for them.
The only concern I have with Buffalo winning this game is Josh Allen's injury status. He will play – it would take having his legs and arms amputated for him not to play. But the man is only human and injuries are piling up on the dude. Last week, he was checked for a concussion after taking a hit to the head. He hit his right hand on the helmet of a defender. He has also been battling knee and foot injuries in the last few weeks.
So the Bills would like to see him run less and take fewer hits. But Denver has one of the top defenses in the league. They finished second only to the Houston Texans in total yards allowed. They finished third in scoring defense (18.3 points allowed). For Buffalo to win, they will need Allen to scramble and run with the ball.
The other key to Buffalo's success with be James Cook. Cook has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 121 rushing yards per game on the road. The Bills sometimes forget about that he finished as the NFL's leading rusher. That is when they get into trouble.
Head coach Sean McDermott also worries me in key moments. He gave the Jaguars a chance last week when they shouldn't have. The Bills had the ball, first-and-goal, at the Jacksonville one-yard line, down 24-20. There was only a minute left on the clock and the Jags had no timeouts. Buffalo should have just taken a knee or a Drake Maye-type half-hearted QB sneak (like Maye did earlier in the year). Just don't score on the first play. Let the clock run down to twenty seconds, and then punch the ball in.
Instead, Allen scored right away as Coen accepted the gift and told his defense to back off. Jacksonville came close to getting into field goal range to tie it, but ultimately lost.
Prediction: Bills 23, Denver 19
Tony’s Pick: BILLS +1.5
Point Total: UNDER 45.5
Best Prop Bet: Bo Nix under 213.5 yards passing (-112 on DraftKings)
49ers @ Seahawks — Sat 8:00 PM ET (FOX)
Spread: SEA -7 | Total: 44.5 — Lumen Field
I'll be honest, I still have the voices of those so-called "experts" in my head:
"The 49ers are too banged up. They have no chance. This should be a double-digit spread."
Seattle, on the other hand, is the number one seed in the NFC and is coming off a bye week. They are completely rested and raring to go. They also have the confidence of knowing they just dominated the 49ers two weeks ago to cinch up the top seed.
What a difference that loss made for San Francisco. They missed out on a valuable week of rest and have been forced to travel across the country and back.
I tend to agree with the voices in my head this week, although Sam Darnold in a big game doesn't make me confident. Niners' coach Kyle Shanahan is also a difference-maker.
Prediction: Seattle 24, San Francisco 16
Tony’s Pick: SEAHAWKS -7
Point Total: UNDER 44.5
Best Prop Bet: Zach Charbonnet anytime TD (-105 on DraftKings)
Texans @ Patriots — Sun 3:00 PM ET (ESPN/ABC)
Spread: NE -3 | Total: 40.5 — Gillette Stadium
This might be the matchup of the weekend and not just because I am a Patriots fan. First off, the weather looks to be snowy. Patriots' fans may have forgotten what it feels like to be in the playoffs, but Mother Nature in New England knows what time it is. It is "Snow Angels" and "Snowball Fireworks Time."
The Houston Texans may be the hottest team in the NFL right now. They have been peaking at the right time. Unfortunately for them, they will be without their top weapon on offense. Wide receiver Nico Collins has been ruled out of the game after suffering his second concussion of the season.
For the Patriots, stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez also has been placed in concussion protocol this week after hitting his head on the turf late in the game last week. He, however, has been cleared and was a full participant on Friday.
The Patriots shouldn't be too concerned about Gonzalez's availability. They should be able to limit the Houston offense without him, especially with Nico Collins out. I think – correction – I know the Patriots defense is going to be highly motivated in this one. They only gave up 3 points to the Chargers last week and all they've been hearing about this week is how great this Houston defense is. You think Vrabel hasn't been leaning in and whispering that in his players' ears this week?
The offenses will be the difference in this one. Drake Maye is not Aaron Rodgers. He won't stand in the pocket – like a statue waiting to be shit on by pigeons – like Rodgers did last Monday night. New England has far more weapons on offense and they don't have a head coach who has checked out.
Prediction: Patriots 17, Texans 0
Tony’s Pick: PATRIOTS -3
Point Total: UNDER 40.5
Best Prop Bet: C.J. Stroud over 31.5 pass attempts (-113 on DraftKings)
Rams @ Bears — Sun 6:30 PM ET (NBC/Peacock)
Spread: LAR -4.5 | Total: 48.5 — Soldier Field
There are fewer places in the world I would rather be than in Chicago in January. I am sure the Rams feel the same way. They will want to be in and out as quickly as possible. To make matters worse, the NFL put this game as the final game of the weekend. In prime time. At night.
The forecast for Sunday night calls for a slight chance of snow showers and the temperatures in single digits. More concerning, however, will be the winds. Winds are predicted to blow 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40.
So while all the attention might be on these two high-profile quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams, this game will be decided by the running games. And both teams have good ones featuring two backs that split carries evenly.
The Rams have Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Williams has been the Rams' workhorse for the last three seasons – rushing for over 1,100 yards and 10+ touchdowns each year – second-year running back Blake Corum has been averaging double-digit carries over the last six weeks. Corum has zero fumbles in his career in 241 touches. Williams, however, has 11 fumbles in his four-year career.
The Bears have kind of the same thing going on. Six-year versatile veteran D'Andre Swift has seen his workload cut back in favor of the rookie human-bowling ball Kyle Monangai. Monangai hasn't fumbled this year in 196 touches of the ball. The seventh-round pick out of Rutgers has had games of 176 and 130 yards rushing this season.
Swift has fumbled twice this year on his way to rushing for 1,087 yards and 9 touchdowns. Swift is more of a weapon as a pass catcher, however, with 34 receptions and 1 TD catching the ball out of the backfield.
Another thing to take note of is the emergence of rookie Bears' tight end Colston Loveland. The Bears took a lot of flack for drafting him before Tyler Warren, who was widely considered the best tight end in this year's draft. But, damn, if they didn't know something. Loveland has been targeted 38 times in the last three games by Caleb Williams. He has had more than 90 yards receiving in all three of those games and it is becoming painfully apparent that Williams-to-Loveland will be a problem for the league to contend with for years to come.
Prediction: Rams 24, Bears 23
Tony’s Pick: BEARS +4.5
Point Total: UNDER 48.5
Best Prop Bet: Colston Loveland alt receptions 6+ (+104 on DraftKings)