Conference Championship Sunday: Next Stop, the Super Bowl

Can you believe the last time an AFC Championship Game was played without either the Kansas City Chiefs or New England Patriots in it was 2011 when the Pittsburgh Steelers played the ... wait a minute... this can't be right... the New York Jets?

It looked like the streak would come to an end this year when Patrick Mahomes went down and the Chiefs failed to qualify for the playoffs. But the New England Patriots – a team that had won only four games each of the two previous seasons – picked up the baton and ran with it.

The Broncos got to the AFC Championship Game thanks to a few questionable calls late in their game against Buffalo. For the record, I thought the key play in the game was rightfully called an interception. I never thought Brandin Cooks held the ball long enough to call it a completion. That was 100% on Cooks for not fighting for the ball harder.

That one call cost the Bills a trip to the AFC Championship Game as it would have put them in position to kick a game winning field goal. Instead, the Bills lost... and head coach Sean McDermott lost his job.

The Rams beat the Bears to get to the NFC Championship Game but the play of the game was made by Chicago quarterback, Caleb Williams. On 4th-and-4 from the Rams' 14-yard line with his team down 17-10 and 0:27 left in the game, Williams dropped back to pass, felt some pressure, sprinted all the way back to midfield, and threw a desperation heave off his back foot to the far left pylon of the endzone where tight end Cole Kmet (who may, or may not, have shoved the defender away... he did!) made the catch.

After making one of the greatest passes in NFL playoff history, Williams followed it up with an equally bad interception in overtime with his team only a few yards away from being able to kick a game-winning field goal.

Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown and that's all Seattle needed to dispense of the depleted 49ers squad, 41-6.

So now the stage is set for both top seeds in their conferences to square off with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. Who will win?

LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Time: 6:30 PM

Spread: SEA -2.5

Total: 46.5

These two teams were widely considered the two best teams in the NFL all season. In my opinion, whoever wins this game should be a huge favorite to win the Super Bowl.

By the way, the spread for the NFC to win the Super Bowl has hovered around 2.5 points the last few weeks. I jumped on that one a long time ago. Little did I know my Patriots would become favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are 6-2 at home. They actually had a better record (7-1) on the road. The Rams were 7-1 at home.

Unfortunately, this game is not being played at home for them, and they have been barely a .500 team on the road (5-4). They lost two of those games to mediocre teams like Carolina and Atlanta.

Matthew Stafford hasn't looked very MVP-like in these playoffs. He has completed less than 60% of his passes in both playoff games and was only 20 of 42 against the Bears. And now he is going up against the best defense out of all three teams he's faced.

Seattle won easily last week, but suffered a big loss when Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in the second quarter of the game. Charbonnet was the team's goal-line running back and led the team with 12 rushing touchdowns.

But he was more than just a goal line back. The second-year running back was emerging as the team's lead back. In the last two regular season games, he had 18 and 17 carries, respectively.

Kenneth Walker III is no slouch, though. He was also a second-round pick – drafted a year before Charbonnet. He can be explosive but is more effective when not given too heavy of a workload.

That is critical considering only the Buffalo Bills ran the ball more than the Seahawks this year – and I'm sure many of those runs were designed runs or scrambles for Josh Allen. The Seahawks don't design runs for Sam Darnold. They rely 100% on their running backs.

Which is to say the Seattle offense is predicated on not putting too much on any one player's plate. The Charbonnet injury will make Walker have to carry the ball more (and take more hits – he tends to be injury prone) and may require Darnold to throw more often.

Darnold averages only about 28 pass attempts per game. Those are like Roger Staubach, Bob Griese, or Terry Bradshaw 1970s-type pass attempt numbers.

This game will come down to one thing – how will Sam Darnold perform under pressure. Darnold lost to the Rams a year ago, but as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. He went 25-for-40, 245 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. More startling, he was sacked nine times in that game.

I think the Rams come after him again. They will try to make him "see ghosts" as he has been prone to do. The Seattle home crowd could turn into a negative real quick for Seattle if Darnold throws an early pick or takes too many sacks because he is holding on to the ball too long.

Stafford's recent struggles concern me. The Rams' defense concerns me. They were once one of the best in the league but have now slipped to 19th in pass defense, 12th in run defense, and 20th in points allowed.

My pick in this one comes down to Stafford vs. Darnold. I have more confidence in Stafford with his experience and his ability. The Charbonnet injury I think is bigger than people realize. It will disrupt the delicate balance of the Seattle offense. And the Rams have more weapons on offense with their depth at the wide receiver, running back, and tight end positions.

Prediction: Rams 20, Seahawks 19

Tony's Pick: RAMS +2.5

Total: UNDER 46.5

NE Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Time: 3:00 PM

Spread: NE -4.5

Total: 43.5

This was supposed to be the battle of two quarterbacks drafted less than two years ago. It would have been an awesome showcase for the NFL – "the future is now" kind of stuff. Imagine if Caleb Williams would have been able to pull off the win against the Rams. Roger Goodell would be smoking a cigar all week.

Alas, only minutes after the Broncos' exciting win over the Bills, head coach Sean Payton announced to the media that his starting quarterback, Bo Nix, suffered a fractured ankle on the second-to-last-play of the game and was done for the season. Talk about a buzz kill.

That immediately swung the door wide open for the winner of the Houston Texans-New England Patriots game that was to follow. Much like I expected, the Patriots' defense played with something to prove and forced Houston quarterback CJ Stroud into four turnovers in the first half on their way to a comfortable, 17-6, win.

The Patriots have been terrific at staying mentally focused for each opponent. Despite – as everyone keeps mentioning – having the "easiest schedule in the history of mankind," the Patriots keep winning. I even mentioned before – the Rams lost to the Panthers and the Falcons this year. Even very good teams have letdowns every once in a while. Not the Patriots this year.

The Patriots have fallen victim to losing to backup quarterbacks in the past, even in Super Bowls. Was it due to overconfidence? It doesn't matter.

Mike Vrabel made a point of making a clean cut from the past. He got rid of all the team captains from a year ago. He made a point during his introductory team meeting that the people in that room were there to start a new chapter in Patriots' history.

So does it matter that New England is 0-4 in Denver in the playoffs? Not to this team.

Jarrett Stidham is a capable quarterback – if this were a meaningless, regular season game, But this is the AFC Championship Game. There are no other games being played. All the attention is on this game. There is no where to hide. A ticket to the Super Bowl is on the line.

Josh McDaniels knows Stidham well. Besides being a member of the Patriots for twos seasons, McDaniels took him to Las Vegas when Josh got the Raiders' head coaching gig in 2022. McDaniels knows what Stidham can and cannot do, what he likes and what he doesn't like.

That's a huge advantage right there – as if it wasn't already a big enough advantage going up against a backup quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass in an NFL game in over two seasons.

The Denver defense has been hyped up, but they are not much better than New England's. If you look at their statistics, they are very similar.

If the Patriots go on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl, there will be no one who can take away anything from them, especially Drake Maye and the offense. It would have meant they beat teams in the playoffs with four of the top six defenses in the league.

Drake Maye has taken some criticism for not looking as good in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. No kiddin' – he isn't playing the Jets or the Bengals here in the playoffs.

But Maye did make big plays – either with his arm or with his legs – against the Chargers and the Texans.

He has also made some bone-headed plays by being careless with the football. He has fumbled six times and thrown two interceptions (one was on a Hail Mary) in those two games. Again, credit to New England's defense that they have been able to win both games.

The weather is not supposed to be too bad in Denver – nothing like the two feet of snow we are expecting in parts of New England on Sunday.

Maye should be able to take advantage of Riley Moss – the cornerback starting opposite all-World Pat Surtain II. It would be nice if New England gets Mack Hollins back activated for this game. He is eligible to come off IR and participated in practice, lightly, on Friday.

But they're depth is still good enough even without Hollins. As a matter of fact, I may be dropping a speculative bet on Kyle Williams for an anytime touchdown (+900).

Bottom line: I just don't see how Denver is going to score enough points to win. And this is nothing against Jarrett Stidham. I don't think he is a scrub. He just doesn't have the supporting cast that can pick him up.

RJ Harvey won't be able to run against New England (although he may end up being their leading receiver for the game).

Wide receiver Courtland Sutton is overrated, in my opinion. He disappears for too many extended periods of games, and if Christian Gonzalez is covering him, I don't see him making more than three receptions for less than 30 yards.

Their other good wide-out is Troy Franklin and he is questionable to play.

Their rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant has emerged of late, but he suffered a concussion last week, but is expected to play.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Broncos 13

Tony's Pick: NE -4.5

Total: UNDER 43.5