2026 Patriots Predictions: Player Projections and an AFC East Forecast
With the preseason finally behind us, it is time for one last round of projections before the games begin to count. The Patriots enter 2026 with considerably more offensive talent around Drake Maye, a deeper group of skill players and legitimate expectations that this could develop into one of the NFL’s better offenses.
Rather than trying to project every player (sorry Tanner Arkin and Reggie Gilliam) who might touch the football this season, I focused on the players expected to have the largest roles — along with a few younger players who could emerge as the season progresses.
Passing
Drake Maye
2025 Stats: 354 CMP | 492 ATT | 72.0% | 4,394 YDS | 31 TD | 8 INT | 3 Fumbles Lost
Projected 2026 Stats: 366 CMP | 510 ATT | 71.8% | 4,422 YDS | 39 TD | 8 INT | 3 Fumbles Lost
Maye took a massive step forward last season, and I don’t necessarily expect his completion percentage or yardage to explode again in 2026. What I do expect is more scoring.
The addition of A.J. Brown gives Maye a legitimate No. 1 receiver, while Romeo Doubs adds another proven target to an offense that already includes DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry.
Perhaps the most important number in my projection, however, is not the 39 touchdowns or even the eight interceptions. It is the three fumbles lost.
Maye has already demonstrated that he can protect the football through the air. The next step is cutting down on the damaging fumbles that can come with his willingness to extend plays. If Maye can limit those mistakes while maintaining his efficiency as a passer, he should once again be among the league's better quarterbacks.
Rushing
Rhamondre Stevenson
2025 Stats: 130 ATT | 603 YDS | 4.6 AVG | 7 TD — 32 REC | 345 YDS | 10.8 AVG | 2 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 144 ATT | 696 YDS | 4.8 AVG | 7 TD — 28 REC | 254 YDS | 9.1 AVG | 2 TD
I don’t think Stevenson is going away simply because TreVeyon Henderson is entering his second season.
Stevenson remains the bigger, more physical runner and should continue to handle a significant portion of the workload. My projection would give him 950 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns despite sharing the backfield.
TreVeyon Henderson
2025 Stats: 180 ATT | 911 YDS | 5.1 AVG | 9 TD — 35 REC | 221 YDS | 6.3 AVG | 1 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 102 ATT | 545 YDS | 5.3 AVG | 4 TD — 25 REC | 226 YDS | 9.0 AVG | 2 TD
Henderson remains the more explosive member of the tandem, but I don’t expect the Patriots to suddenly turn him into a 250-carry workhorse.
His value comes from what he can do with limited opportunities. At 5.3 yards per carry in this projection, Henderson would give New England a home-run threat every time he enters the game while also remaining dangerous as a receiver.
Together, Stevenson and Henderson would give the Patriots 1,241 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns from their top two backs alone.
Receiving
A.J. Brown
2025 Stats: 78 REC | 1,003 YDS | 12.9 AVG | 7 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 88 REC | 1,228 YDS | 14.0 AVG | 9 TD
Brown immediately becomes the centerpiece of the Patriots receiving corps.
Stefon Diggs caught 85 passes for 1,013 yards last season in New England. I don't necessarily expect Brown to receive dramatically more volume, but I do expect considerably more production from those opportunities.
Brown gives Maye the physical downfield and contested-catch target that can turn a good passing offense into an explosive one.
Romeo Doubs
2025 Stats: 55 REC | 724 YDS | 13.2 AVG | 6 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 51 REC | 630 YDS | 12.4 AVG | 6 TD
Doubs does not need to be the No. 1 receiver in New England. That may be exactly why he fits.
With Brown commanding attention on the opposite side, Doubs should have plenty of opportunities without the Patriots needing to force the football his way. Fifty-one receptions with six touchdowns would make him an extremely productive secondary option.
DeMario Douglas
2025 Stats: 31 REC | 447 YDS | 14.4 AVG | 3 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 40 REC | 447 YDS | 11.2 AVG | 4 TD
Douglas should continue occupying the slot and working the underneath and intermediate areas of the field.
The additions of Brown and Doubs could reduce his overall target ceiling, but they should also create more space for Douglas underneath. He doesn't need 60 or 70 receptions to remain an important part of the offense.
Mack Hollins
2025 Stats: 46 REC | 550 YDS | 12.0 AVG | 2 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 23 REC | 298 YDS | 13.0 AVG | 2 TD
Hollins played a larger receiving role last season than I expect him to have in 2026.
That doesn't necessarily make him less valuable. His role can become more specialized while Brown, Doubs and Douglas handle most of the receiving volume. Hollins can still contribute as a receiver while providing value in other areas of the offense.
Kyle Williams
2025 Stats: 10 REC | 209 YDS | 20.9 AVG | 3 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 19 REC | 354 YDS | 18.6 AVG | 4 TD
Williams may be my favorite sleeper projection of the group.
Nineteen receptions doesn't sound like much, but 354 yards and four touchdowns certainly would. The 18.6 yards per reception tells the story of how I envision his role.
Williams doesn't need high volume. If he develops into a legitimate vertical threat, New England suddenly has another player defenses have to account for whenever he enters the game.
Efton Chism III
2025 Stats: 3 REC | 75 YDS | 25.0 AVG | 1 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 5 REC | 57 YDS | 11.4 AVG | 0 TD
There simply may not be many offensive opportunities available for Chism without injuries ahead of him.
That isn't necessarily a reflection of Chism as much as it is the depth of the receiver room. His biggest contributions may come elsewhere while he waits for a larger offensive role.
Hunter Henry
2025 Stats: 60 REC | 768 YDS | 12.8 AVG | 7 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 39 REC | 426 YDS | 10.9 AVG | 5 TD
Henry has been one of Maye's most reliable targets, but the improved receiver room should spread the football around considerably more this season.
His overall volume may decline, but I still expect Henry to be important on third downs and in the red zone. Five touchdowns could make him one of Maye's most valuable scoring targets even with fewer receptions.
Eli Raridon
2025 Notre Dame Stats: 32 REC | 482 YDS | 15.1 AVG | 0 TD
Projected 2026 Stats: 17 REC | 208 YDS | 12.2 AVG | 2 TD
Raridon is one of the more interesting young players to project because his role could increase considerably as the season progresses.
Seventeen catches won't produce headlines, but 208 yards and a pair of touchdowns would establish him as a legitimate second tight end as a rookie and potentially set him up for a much larger role down the road.
Final Prediction: Patriots Finish 10–7
When I look at this offense from top to bottom, I see a group capable of finishing in the top 10 in the NFL.
Maye already established himself as one of the league's better young quarterbacks. Brown gives him a true No. 1 receiver. Doubs gives the Patriots another established outside target. Douglas remains dangerous from the slot. Henry provides reliability at tight end, while Williams gives the offense a potential deep threat.
The running back room also gives New England enough versatility to attack defenses in different ways, and perhaps most importantly, the offense appears to have enough depth to withstand an injury or two without completely changing its identity.
The bigger concerns are on the other side of the football.
That said, I am a lot more optimistic today than I was just a few days ago, before Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots finally agreed on a contract extension. Locking up one of the best young cornerbacks in football removes what had become the biggest cloud hanging over this defense.
Depth, however, is still much more of a concern on defense than offense, and the biggest weakness on the roster remains the edge rush.
The Patriots need to generate a consistent pass rush. If they can't, Gonzalez becomes even more important because the secondary will be asked to hold up longer while opposing quarterbacks sit in the pocket. Having an elite corner who can erase one side of the field helps compensate for that weakness, but even Gonzalez can only do so much if New England is unable to create pressure without blitzing.
At this point, the biggest questions are no longer about Gonzalez's future. They are about the pass rush and whether the defense can stay healthy. Those two factors may ultimately determine whether New England merely competes for a playoff spot or becomes a legitimate threat in the AFC.
I believe the offense will be good enough.
My final prediction for New England is 10–7.
I also have Buffalo finishing 10–7, and the Bills may actually have an even tougher schedule than New England.
Looking at Buffalo’s first five games, if you told me the Bills could start 0–5, I wouldn’t call you crazy.
I know — I can already hear you calling me crazy.
But look at the opening stretch:
at Houston, Detroit, L.A. Chargers, New England, at L.A. Rams.
There isn’t an easy game in there.
If New England and Buffalo both finish 10–7, their two head-to-head meetings become even more important. I think the division ultimately comes down to the tiebreakers, and I’m projecting the Patriots to have the better conference record and win the AFC East.
Ultimately — and how is this for a bold prediction? — the Patriots’ season will end in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans, on a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud to...
Kayshon Boutte.
